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After underperforming by 40 points in 1999, Barron's questioned Buffett's ability. Most investors grew fearful and sold, just before Berkshire Hathaway doubled over the next decade while the S&P 500 remained flat. This highlights the danger of following herd sentiment during periods of poor performance.
Success in investing relies on controlling emotional urges, like herd mentality, rather than high intelligence. Buffett's famous quote and his actions during the dot-com bubble illustrate that emotional discipline is the key differentiator for great investors.
Like chipmunks who learn to ignore constantly panicking peers, the market tunes out commentators who always cry wolf. Credibility is built through restraint. Experts like Warren Buffett, who make sparse market calls, carry immense weight because their "alarm calls" are rare and reliable.
Warren Buffett's financial trajectory provides a powerful counter-narrative to tech's obsession with youth. His most significant period of wealth compounding occurred between the ages of 65 and 95, transforming him from 'pretty rich' into one of the wealthiest people in the world. This highlights the long-term power of sustained execution over decades.
Contrary to the 'hold forever' value investing trope, a three-year period of underperformance is a strong signal that your initial thesis was flawed. It's better to admit the mistake and reallocate capital than to stubbornly wait for the market to agree with you.
Buffett strategically used Berkshire's and Coca-Cola's inflated stock prices as currency to acquire Gen Re. This swapped his overvalued equity risk for Gen Re's stable bond portfolio, which acted as a ballast and protected Berkshire during the subsequent market crash. He allowed the deal to be publicly perceived as a mistake, masking its strategic genius.
Even for the world's greatest investor, success is a game of outliers. Buffett made the vast majority of his returns on just 10 of 500 stocks. If you remove the top five deals from Berkshire's history, its returns fall to merely average, highlighting the power law effect in investing.
Historical analysis of investors like Ben Graham and Charlie Munger reveals a consistent pattern: significant, multi-year periods of lagging the market are not an anomaly but a necessary part of a successful long-term strategy. This reality demands structuring your firm and mindset for inevitable pain.
Investors rarely sell a fund for outperforming its benchmark too aggressively, but they should consider it. Research by Vanguard's John Bogle tracked the top 20 funds of each decade and found they almost always became significant underperformers in the following decade, demonstrating the danger of chasing past winners.
An underappreciated component of Warren Buffett's success is his effective communication, which builds immense trust with investors. This trust provides a stable capital base and a longer leash to operate during inevitable periods of poor performance, creating a significant competitive advantage over less communicative peers.
Even long-term winning funds will likely underperform their benchmarks in about half of all years. A Vanguard study of funds that beat the market over 15 years found 94% of them still underperformed in at least five of those years. This means selling based on a few years of poor returns is a flawed strategy.