China is predicted to avoid a direct war with the US by playing both sides. It will likely strike transactional economic deals with America to protect its interests while simultaneously providing financial support to Russia, maintaining a non-aligned but influential position.

Fiona Hill distinguishes between a stalemate, where neither side *can* move, and a deadlock, where they *refuse* to move. This framing suggests the Ukraine war isn't permanently frozen. A sudden concession, likely forced by external pressure on Putin from powers like China, could break the impasse unexpectedly.

President Stubb observes that China, initially "baffled" by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has transitioned to a position of dominance. Russia is now in a "vassal type of a relationship," completely dependent on China for financial support and dual-use materials, fundamentally altering the power dynamic between the two nations.

China is proposing a peace plan for the Iran conflict not primarily to achieve peace, but to strategically position itself as a global peacemaker. This move allows China to claim the diplomatic high ground and implicitly frames the US as a warmonger, regardless of the plan's success.

China is the biggest winner of the conflict, watching its strategic rival, Russia, "bleed itself away" while remaining bogged down. It also profits financially, as 90% of the components for Ukraine's seven million annual drones are sourced from China, showcasing its critical role in the global supply chain.

China is strategically using the US's engagement in the Iran conflict for diplomatic advantage. By calling for stability and mediation, it portrays itself as a responsible global power, contrasting this with the perceived instability caused by US foreign policy, which it frames as a "global wrecking ball."

China plays the long game. Instead of direct confrontation, its strategy is to wait for the U.S. to weaken itself through expensive military interventions and political division. This allows China to gain relative power without firing a shot, similar to its rise during the War on Terror.

A protracted U.S. conflict in the Middle East is a strategic gift to China. It diverts American military resources, political attention, and economic strength, allowing China to expand its influence, particularly in Asia, without direct confrontation.

While facing economic headwinds from the oil crisis, China is positioning the US-Iran conflict as a geopolitical victory. It portrays the US as a chaotic, destabilizing force, contrasting itself as a stable superpower and capitalizing on the global fallout from what it terms 'poor strategic coordination' by Washington.