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Contrary to popular belief, the historical underperformance of IPOs is driven almost entirely by smaller firms. Professor Jay Ritter's research shows that companies with over $100 million in annual revenue at their IPO have, on average, matched market performance post-listing, making size a key differentiator for investors.
While narrative is crucial for IPOs, raises exceeding $50 billion cannot be sustained by marketing alone. The sheer volume of capital required necessitates deep scrutiny from institutional investors, making strong financials and fundamentals the ultimate deciding factor, unlike smaller, easily inflated offerings.
Contrary to the prevailing wisdom of staying private as long as possible, VC Keith Rabois counsels his portfolio companies to pursue an IPO once they hit ~$50 million in predictable revenue. He believes the benefits of being public outweigh the costs much earlier than most founders think.
While the number of US public companies has fallen from over 6,000 to 4,000, this decline is concentrated in micro-cap and small-cap stocks. For diversified, long-term investors, the loss of these smaller, often less-stable companies may not have significantly impacted overall market returns.
Companies and investors should disregard initial post-IPO market volatility. According to Robinhood's CFO, the true measure of a successful public offering isn't apparent for three, five, or even ten years. The key is to maintain a long-term focus on building customer value.
The paper wealth generated on IPO day is a misleading metric due to lockup periods and market volatility. A more accurate mental model for an investor's actual return is the company's market capitalization 18 months after the public offering. This timeframe provides a truer 'locked in value' after initial hype and selling pressure subsides.
As high-growth tech companies delay IPOs, the public small-cap market is left with lower-quality assets. The return on invested capital (ROIC) for the Russell 2500 index has more than halved over 30 years, signaling a fundamental shift for institutional investors.
SK Hynix's IPO was 7x oversubscribed but only popped 14%. For massive deals, this level of demand doesn't translate to the 80-100% pops seen in smaller IPOs because the absolute capital involved is so large, creating more price stability.
While media often highlights the costs of being public, the valuation multiple is an overlooked benefit. A consistently growing small business can command a 20x P/E ratio, far exceeding the typical 3x cash flow multiple offered in a private equity buyout.
Academic research covering decades of data reveals a clear trend: newly public companies tend to underperform the broader market by an average of 20 percentage points in the three years following their IPO. This underperformance is even more pronounced for high-valuation firms, serving as a cautionary tale for investors chasing IPO hype.
Counterintuitively, the compliance burden for an IPO increases dramatically with revenue. Companies over $1B face rigorous PCOB compliance, requiring years of building out teams and processes, unlike pre-revenue firms that can go public more simply.