A potential silver lining to a severe market correction is that it could solve the affordability crisis. A crash would likely deflate housing prices, curbing inflation. This would implicitly cause a massive redistribution of wealth from older generations who hold home equity to younger generations, breaking economic stagnation through a painful societal shift.
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The wealth divide is exacerbated by two different types of inflation. While wages are benchmarked against CPI (consumer goods), wealth for asset-holders grows with "asset price inflation" (stocks, real estate), which compounds much faster. Young people paid in cash cannot keep up.
The economic struggles of young men are not just a result of market forces but a direct consequence of policies that have systematically shifted wealth from younger to older generations. This manifests in unaffordable education and housing, crushing debt, and lower relative wages compared to their parents and grandparents.
The current system is locked in because policymakers fear the consequences of letting asset prices fall. A genuine shift will only occur when a political figure gains power with a mandate to help the middle class, even if it means 'suffering the consequences' of a market crash.
Homeownership is the primary vehicle for intergenerational wealth creation in the United States. The average household has four times more wealth tied up in their home than in stock market investments, highlighting the severe economic impact of declining ownership rates.
As homeownership becomes unattainable without generational wealth, social mobility is stalling. The growing gap between asset owners and renters is calcifying, transforming the American economic structure from a meritocracy into a caste-like system where your financial starting point determines your destiny.
A major driver of today's housing scarcity is that homeowners, particularly Boomers, who refinanced into sub-3% mortgages have no financial incentive to ever sell. This seemingly positive economic condition has had the negative side effect of locking vast amounts of housing inventory in place, worsening the supply crisis.
Historically, what tears societies apart is not economic depression itself but runaway wealth inequality. A major bubble bursting would dramatically widen the gap between asset holders and everyone else, fueling the populist anger and political violence that directly leads to civil unrest.
The current housing market is not a cyclical bubble that will pop, but a structural crisis. It's a permanent collapse of opportunity driven by policy failures, corporate consolidation, and demographic incentives that have created deep, lasting scarcity, fundamentally changing the nature of homeownership in America.
Broad, non-means-tested stimulus programs, like the COVID CARES Act, function as the greatest intergenerational theft in history. They overwhelmingly benefit asset-owning incumbents by inflating housing and stock prices, while burdening younger generations with the debt used to finance the bailouts, effectively locking them out of asset ownership.
The majority of the $7 trillion COVID-19 stimulus was saved, not spent, flowing directly into assets like stocks and real estate. This disproportionately enriched older generations who own these assets, interrupting the natural economic cycle and widening the wealth gap.
