Drawing from Chris Dixon's thesis, the initial success of AI tools like Suno is based on their utility for creation (the "tool"). Their long-term viability hinges on transitioning users into a sticky consumption or social network, much like Instagram did with photo filters.
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The founder predicts that hyper-specific vertical AI solutions are too easy to replicate. While they may find initial traction, they lack a durable moat. The stronger, long-term business is building horizontal tools that empower users to solve their own complex problems.
The obvious social play for OpenAI is to embed collaborative features within ChatGPT, leveraging its utility. Instead, the company launched Sora, a separate entertainment app. This focus on niche content creation over core product utility is a questionable strategy for building a lasting social network.
Learning from Instagram's evolution towards passive consumption, the Sora team intentionally designs its social feed to inspire creation, not just scrolling. This fundamentally changes the platform's incentives and is proving successful, with high rates of daily active creation and posting.
Counter to fears that foundation models will obsolete all apps, AI startups can build defensible businesses by embedding AI into unique workflows, owning the customer relationship, and creating network effects. This mirrors how top App Store apps succeeded despite Apple's platform dominance.
Many users of generative AI tools like Suno and Midjourney are creating content for their own enjoyment, not for professional use. This reveals a 'creation as entertainment' consumer behavior, distinct from the traditional focus on productivity or job displacement.
Successful AI products follow a three-stage evolution. Version 1.0 attracts 'AI tourists' who play with the tool. Version 2.0 serves early adopters who provide crucial feedback. Only version 3.0 is ready to target the mass market, which hates change and requires a truly polished, valuable product.
AI music's primary value isn't just as a professional tool. Suno's CEO explains its success comes from attracting users with a novel party trick (e.g., a funny one-off song) and then retaining them through the unexpectedly joyful and engaging experience of making music.
The next generation of social networks will be fundamentally different, built around the creation of functional software and AI models, not just media. The status game will shift from who has the best content to who can build the most useful or interesting tools for the community.
As platforms like OpenAI integrate music generation, they'll capture the broad, casual user base (e.g., making a funny song for a chat). This pressures specialized tools like Suno to build defensibility by catering to prosumers and enterprise clients with deeper features, similar to Midjourney's strategy against DALL-E.
The promise of AI shouldn't be a one-click solution that removes the user. Instead, AI should be a collaborative partner that augments human capacity. A successful AI product leaves room for user participation, making them feel like they are co-building the experience and have a stake in the outcome.
