Contrary to typical risk-off behavior, a financial shock originating in the US would likely be positive for the EUR/USD exchange rate. This is because it creates more room for the US Federal Reserve to reprice its policy downwards and can trigger repatriation flows out of US equities.

COFA data reveals a significant multi-year trend where a bloc of unspecified "other currencies" is steadily gaining share in global reserves. This group has displaced more of the US dollar's declining share than the Euro, Yen, or Sterling, indicating a broad, under-the-radar diversification movement by reserve managers.

Contrary to the belief that US strength harms the Euro, historical data shows the EUR/USD pair performs best when growth outlooks for *both* regions are being upgraded. This is because the Euro is fundamentally a pro-cyclical 'growth currency,' benefiting from a global risk-on environment even when the US also thrives.

The pivotal moment in the Eurozone crisis wasn't a bailout fund but Mario Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. This statement transformed market psychology by signaling that the ECB would finally act as a credible lender of last resort, a function it had previously avoided, making it a "true central bank."

While the idea of US growth re-acceleration is driving dollar strength, it's not the only story. Recent positive surprises in European PMI data and upgraded Chinese GDP forecasts suggest broader global growth resilience. This breadth should help cap the US dollar's rally and may promote weakness against other currencies.

The US dollar's dominance is less about its role in oil transactions (petrodollar) and more about its deep integration into global banking and financial plumbing via the Eurodollar system. This structural entrenchment makes it incredibly difficult to displace.

The primary risk for the U.S. is not the inevitable decline of the dollar's dominance, which could rebalance the economy. The danger lies in trying to fight this trend, leading to a disorderly and painful collapse rather than a graceful, managed transition from a position of strength.

The US dollar reached its peak global dominance in the early 2000s. The world is now gradually shifting to a system where multiple currencies (like the euro and yuan) and neutral assets (like gold) share the role of reserve currency, marking a return to a more historically normal state.

Stronger US growth isn't hurting EM currencies because growth is also being revised up globally in places like China and Europe. This prevents a repeat of the 'US exceptionalism' theme that typically strengthens the dollar and pressures EM assets, making the current environment less problematic for EMFX.