While network effects drive consolidation in tech, a powerful counter-force prevents monopolies. Large enterprise customers intentionally support multiple major players (e.g., AWS, GCP, Azure) to avoid vendor lock-in and maintain negotiating power, naturally creating a market with two to three leaders.

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Businesses become critically dependent on platforms for even a small fraction of their revenue (e.g., 20%). This 'monopsony power' creates a stronger lock-in than user network effects, as losing that customer base can bankrupt the business.

While high capex is often seen as a negative, for giants like Alphabet and Microsoft, it functions as a powerful moat in the AI race. The sheer scale of spending—tens of billions annually—is something most companies cannot afford, effectively limiting the field of viable competitors.

Contrary to the belief that number two players can be viable, most tech markets are winner-take-all. The market leader captures the vast majority of economic value, making investments in second or third-place companies extremely risky.

Large tech companies are buying up compute from smaller cloud providers not for immediate need, but as a defensive strategy. By hoarding scarce GPU capacity, they prevent competitors from accessing critical resources, effectively cornering the market and stifling innovation from rivals.

While many investors hunt for pure monopolies, most tech markets naturally support a handful of large players in an oligopoly structure. Markets like payments (Stripe, Adyen, PayPal) demonstrate that multiple large, successful companies can coexist, a crucial distinction for market analysis and investment strategy.

The AI industry is not a winner-take-all market. Instead, it's a dynamic "leapfrogging" race where competitors like OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic constantly surpass each other with new models. This prevents a single monopoly and encourages specialization, with different models excelling in areas like coding or current events.

ZocDoc's CEO argues that because multiple AI agents (from Google, OpenAI, etc.) are competing for users, they must integrate with essential real-world services like ZocDoc, DoorDash, and Uber to be useful. This gives service platforms significant negotiating power they never had in Google's search monopoly era.

Hyperscalers are new ecosystem marketplaces, not just advanced distributors. They have fundamentally changed the B2B customer journey, invalidating traditional sales and marketing playbooks. Established tech companies must adapt to new co-selling motions or risk becoming obsolete.

Smaller software companies can't compete with giants like Salesforce or Adobe on an all-in-one basis. They must strategically embrace interoperability and multi-cloud models as a key differentiator. This appeals to customers seeking flexibility and avoiding lock-in to a single vendor's ecosystem.

New technology like AI doesn't automatically displace incumbents. Established players like DoorDash and Google successfully defend their turf by leveraging deep-rooted network effects (e.g., restaurant relationships, user habits). They can adopt or build competing tech, while challengers struggle to replicate the established ecosystem.