Current market chatter about reduced demand for U.S. assets is not a sign of a sudden de-dollarization crisis. Instead, it reflects a slow, rational diversification by global investors who are finding better relative value in other developed markets as their local interest rates rise.

Historically, US earnings outgrew the world by 1%. Post-GFC, this widened to 3%. Investors have extrapolated this recent, higher rate as the new normal, pushing the US CAPE ratio to nearly double that of non-US markets. This represents a historically extreme valuation based on a potentially temporary growth advantage.

Despite a popular bearish narrative, the U.S. Dollar has a strong bullish case. The U.S. economy is accelerating while Europe and Japan face stagflation, and record short positioning creates fuel for a squeeze. The argument is that U.S. stocks are essentially levered U.S. dollars, and relative strength will attract capital.

Goldman's CEO argues the U.S. growth lead is not temporary. It's fueled by a superior tech innovation ecosystem and more efficient capital formation processes. He contrasts the US's ~$30T economy growing at 2% with Europe's ~$20T economy growing under 1%, predicting the gap will widen.

In 2025, US stocks underperformed global peers despite superior earnings growth. Non-US markets saw significant price increases on flat or negative earnings, a divergence that Goldman Sachs Wealth Management believes is unsustainable, reinforcing their long-term US overweight thesis based on earnings fundamentals.

While markets fixate on Fed rate decisions, the primary driver of liquidity and high equity valuations is geopolitical risk influencing international trade and capital flows. This macro force is more significant than domestic monetary policy and explains market resilience despite higher rates.

American market dominance has been heavily financed by foreign savings. As geopolitics shift, countries like Japan and Germany will likely repatriate that capital to fund domestic priorities like defense and energy, creating a significant, underappreciated headwind for U.S. assets.

International buyers want exposure to high-performing US companies like NVIDIA but are simultaneously hedging against a declining US dollar. They are separating the appeal of American corporate exceptionalism from growing concerns about US sovereign risk and currency depreciation.

Historical precedent suggests that in a positive growth environment, a geopolitical shock like a potential US-Iran conflict might not lead to a sustained risk-off rally in the US dollar. Markets may price out the risk premium quickly, allowing pro-cyclical trends to resume, as seen in a similar event last year.