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The archaic nature of the U.S. financial system isn't just due to old technology. It's a "deep tech problem" entrenched by a highly regulated environment. This friction protects incumbents and makes bottom-up disruption from technologies like stablecoins necessary for true modernization.
The current capital market structure, with its high fees, delays, and limited access, is a direct result of regulations from the 1930s. These laws created layers of intermediaries to enforce trust, baking in complexity and rent-seeking by design. This historical context explains why the system is ripe for disruption by more efficient technologies.
The US failed to develop super apps not due to a lack of ambition, but because of a mature market with powerful incumbents. Unlike in China, US tech firms must negotiate with and integrate into existing, dominant banking and commerce networks, creating immense friction.
Banks oppose stablecoins because they disrupt a core profit center: the spread between low interest paid on deposits and high yields earned from investing those deposits in treasuries. Stablecoins can pass these yields directly to consumers, creating a competitive market.
Widespread adoption of blockchain, particularly stablecoins, has been hindered by a "semi-illegal" regulatory environment in the U.S. (e.g., Operation Chokepoint). Now that this barrier is removed, major financial players are racing to integrate the technology, likely making it common within a year.
A key provision in the crypto market structure bill, which could stall its passage, is the debate over allowing third parties to pay yield on stablecoins. Regulators fear this could trigger a mass exodus of deposits from the traditional banking system, while the crypto industry views it as essential for competition.
The US administration criticized Brazil's wildly successful instant-payment system, PIX, for harming companies like Visa. This stance reveals how deeply entrenched financial incumbents have captured US policy, actively resisting innovation that has made payments faster and cheaper in many other developed countries.
Scott Lucas of JPMorgan counters the "everything on-chain in 10 years" narrative. He argues the main hurdles aren't technological, but rather the slow, complex process of achieving legal clarity, regulatory understanding, and upgrading massive internal legacy systems across the financial industry. This institutional drag makes a rapid overhaul highly improbable.
The primary barrier to realizing the benefits of new technologies like AI isn't the tech itself, but a societal structure Stripe calls the "Republic of Permissions." Non-market forces like regulators, committees, and courts create synthetic impediments that prevent economically superior solutions from being adopted.
The US banking system is technologically behind countries in Eastern Europe, Asia, and Latin America. This inefficiency stems from a protected regulatory environment that fosters a status quo. In contrast, markets like the UK have implemented fintech-friendly charters, enabling innovators like Revolut to thrive.
A US-endorsed stablecoin could offer T-bill-like security and yield directly to global consumers, bypassing banks. This poses a threat to the traditional financial system, which is viewed as inefficient, with 80% of its loans being non-productive (consumption or financial speculation) from a statecraft perspective.