High home prices should not be interpreted as a sign of a healthy market. Instead, they indicate a system that is malfunctioning as designed, where artificial scarcity created by policy and corporate buying drives prices up. This reflects a structural failure, not robust economic demand.
Meaningful affordability cannot be achieved with superficial fixes. It requires long-term, structural solutions: building 5-10 million more homes to address housing costs (40% of CPI), implementing universal healthcare to lower medical expenses, expanding public higher education, and aggressive antitrust enforcement to foster competition.
The difference in home price trends between US regions is not about weather or jobs, but housing supply. States in the South and West that permit widespread new construction are seeing prices fall, while "Not In My Backyard" (NIMBY) states in the Northeast and Midwest face shortages and rising prices.
Housing scarcity is a bottom-up cycle where homeowners' financial incentive is to protect their property value (NIMBYism). They then vote for politicians who enact restrictive building policies, turning personal financial interests into systemic regulatory bottlenecks.
As homeownership becomes unattainable without generational wealth, social mobility is stalling. The growing gap between asset owners and renters is calcifying, transforming the American economic structure from a meritocracy into a caste-like system where your financial starting point determines your destiny.
A major driver of today's housing scarcity is that homeowners, particularly Boomers, who refinanced into sub-3% mortgages have no financial incentive to ever sell. This seemingly positive economic condition has had the negative side effect of locking vast amounts of housing inventory in place, worsening the supply crisis.
The American housing market is increasingly inaccessible to younger generations. The median age of a homebuyer has hit a record high of 59, the same age one can access retirement funds. Even the median first-time buyer is now 40, indicating a systemic affordability crisis.
The current housing market is not a cyclical bubble that will pop, but a structural crisis. It's a permanent collapse of opportunity driven by policy failures, corporate consolidation, and demographic incentives that have created deep, lasting scarcity, fundamentally changing the nature of homeownership in America.
Institutional investors treat homes not as places to live but as financial products for generating cash flow and appreciation. By buying up entire neighborhoods, they have effectively created a new institutional asset class, turning communities into rental portfolios and pricing out individual buyers.
Politicians at all levels actively restrict housing supply through zoning and other policies. This is not incompetence, but a deliberate strategy to protect and inflate property values, which satisfies the large and reliable homeowner voting bloc, ensuring re-election at the expense of renters and future buyers.
Extending mortgage terms doesn't solve housing affordability because it primarily boosts demand for a fixed supply of homes. This drives asset prices higher, as sellers adjust prices to match buyers' new monthly payment capacity. The historical example of Japan's housing bubble, fueled by 100-year mortgages, illustrates this danger.