A 2022 study by the Forecasting Research Institute has been reviewed, revealing that top forecasters and AI experts significantly underestimated AI advancements. They assigned single-digit odds to breakthroughs that occurred within two years, proving we are consistently behind the curve in our predictions.

The hype around an imminent Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) event is fading among top AI practitioners. The consensus is shifting to a "Goldilocks scenario" where AI provides massive productivity gains as a synergistic tool, with true AGI still at least a decade away.

Human intuition is a poor gauge of AI's actual productivity benefits. A study found developers felt significantly sped up by AI coding tools even when objective measurements showed no speed increase. The real value may come from enabling tasks that otherwise wouldn't be attempted, rather than simply accelerating existing workflows.

Unlike the early internet era led by new faces, the AI revolution is being pushed by the same leaders who oversaw social media's societal failures. This history of broken promises and eroded trust means the public is inherently skeptical of their new, grand claims about AI.

Internal surveys highlight a critical paradox in AI adoption: while over 80% of Stack Overflow's developer community uses or plans to use AI, only 29% trust its output. This significant "trust gap" explains persistent user skepticism and creates a market opportunity for verified, human-curated data.

AI's contribution to US economic growth is immense, accounting for ~60% via direct spending and indirect wealth effects. However, unlike past tech booms that inspired optimism, public sentiment is largely fearful, with most citizens wanting regulation due to job security concerns, creating a unique tension.

While AI investment has exploded, US productivity has barely risen. Valuations are priced as if a societal transformation is complete, yet 95% of GenAI pilots fail to positively impact company P&Ls. This gap between market expectation and real-world economic benefit creates systemic risk.

Unlike other tech rollouts, the AI industry's public narrative has been dominated by vague warnings of disruption rather than clear, tangible benefits for the average person. This communication failure is a key driver of widespread anxiety and opposition.

Vanguard's Joe Davis finds that Silicon Valley insiders see a 100% chance of an AI boom, while prominent academics are equally certain of a deficit-driven slump. This polarization at the extremes suggests the moderate, consensus economic view is the least likely future.