Analyzing a company's human capital reveals surprising correlations for stock performance. A higher number of PhDs per dollar of market cap is linked to better future returns, while a higher concentration of MBAs acts as a negative indicator.

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Many late-stage investors focus heavily on data and metrics, forgetting that the quality of the leadership team remains as critical as in the seed stage. A new CEO, for example, can completely pivot a large company and reignite growth, a factor that quantitative analysis often misses.

Go beyond analyzing the founding team by treating the entire employee base as a key asset. By measuring metrics like employee retention rates, hiring velocity, and geographical or role-based growth, investors can build a quantitative picture of a company's health and culture, providing a powerful comparative tool.

Capital allocation isn't just about multi-million dollar acquisitions. Hiring a single employee is also a major investment; a $100k salary represents a discounted million-dollar commitment over time. Applying the same rigor to hiring decisions as you would to CapEx ensures you're investing your human capital wisely.

Vested's investment model gains an edge from proprietary data on employee sentiment and behavior. Signals like unsolicited negative comments, willingness to counter on price, or selling more shares than necessary provide unique insights into a company's health that traditional financial analysis lacks, forming a data moat.

In a group of 100 experts training an AI, the top 10% will often drive the majority of the model's improvement. This creates a power law dynamic where the ability to source and identify this elite talent becomes a key competitive moat for AI labs and data providers.

A study found that CEOs trained to prioritize shareholder value deliver short-term returns by suppressing employee pay. This practice drives away high-skilled workers and cripples the company's long-term outlook, all without evidence of actually increasing sales, productivity, or investment.

While many investors screen for companies with high Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), a more powerful indicator is the trajectory of ROIC. A company improving from a 4% to 8% ROIC is often a better investment than one stagnant at 12%, as there is a direct correlation between rising ROIC and stock performance.

A study of companies in the U.S. and Denmark found that while MBA-led firms achieved better short-term shareholder returns, this came at the expense of employees through suppressed wages. Critically, these leaders showed no evidence of increasing sales, productivity, or investment. The resulting wage declines led to higher-skilled employees leaving, crippling long-term company health.

In rapidly evolving fields like AI, pre-existing experience can be a liability. The highest performers often possess high agency, energy, and learning speed, allowing them to adapt without needing to unlearn outdated habits.

For cutting-edge AI problems, innate curiosity and learning speed ("velocity") are more important than existing domain knowledge. Echoing Karpathy, a candidate with a track record of diving deep into complex topics, regardless of field, will outperform a skilled but less-driven specialist.