We scan new podcasts and send you the top 5 insights daily.
Historical returns and DPI are backward-looking indicators lagging reality by five to seven years, offering little predictive value for upcoming technological shifts. Limited partners should instead evaluate prospective VC firms through the 'windshield' by surveying high-performing startup founders on which partners they respect most, particularly those whose term sheets the founders did not accept. A firm lacking partner-level respect among current market builders will struggle.
While returns come from a small number of breakout companies, a VC firm's long-term reputation and deal flow are determined by its relationship with all founders. How a firm supports founders through failure influences whether they'll back them again or if those founders will recommend the firm to others.
For a first-time fund, the reputation of past capital partners acts as a powerful 'stamp of approval' for new institutional LPs. A track record built with individual investors is heavily discounted compared to one built through programmatic JVs with firms like Blackstone. New investors use this pedigree as a crucial due diligence shortcut.
While backing successful repeat founders is a common VC strategy, the true measure of a firm's value is when those founders actively choose to partner with them again for their next venture. This signifies a relationship built on trust and strategic value, not just capital.
Brian Singerman's venture strategy was almost entirely focused on founder assessment, making up over 98% of his decision. He famously doesn't read financial reports or use spreadsheets, instead concentrating all his effort on one question: is this founder the best in the world at something novel?
Venture capital returns materialize over a decade, making short-term outputs like markups unreliable 'mirages.' Sequoia instead measures partners on tangible inputs. They are reviewed semi-annually on the quality of their decision-making process (e.g., investment memos) and their adherence to core team values, not on premature financial metrics.
In a capital-rich environment, top founders don't need a VC's brand for signaling. They instead prioritize investors who have earned deep trust through meaningful actions, like co-founding or providing critical early help, over a prestigious but passive firm.
Ben Horowitz argues that waiting a decade for fund outcomes is too slow. Instead, a16z judges investors "at the point of attack"—how good they are at finding and winning deals with exceptional founders. This focuses on decision quality in the present, not lagging indicators.
The core competitive advantage a venture firm compounds over time is its reputation. This reputation is transferable to portfolio companies, granting them immediate credibility with recruits, customers, and future investors, but it requires extreme vigilance to protect.
During due diligence on a venture firm, asking portfolio founders why they chose that investor is critical. If the answer is simply "they had money," it implies the VC offers no strategic value—like recruiting help or corporate relationships—and is not a top-tier partner.
Relying on an established VC's past performance creates a false sense of security. The critical diligence question for any manager, emerging or established, is whether they are positioned to win *now*. Factors like increased fund size, team changes, and evolving market dynamics mean a great track record from 5-10 years ago has limited predictive power today.