Societal hatred and tribalism are lagging indicators of economic distress. By the time political polarization becomes extreme, the underlying system is already in crisis due to factors like excessive debt and money printing. The economy is the root cause to watch.

History shows a strong correlation between extreme national debt and societal breakdown. Countries that sustain a debt-to-GDP ratio over 130% for an extended period (e.g., 18 months) tend to tear themselves apart through civil war or revolution, not external attack.

Japan sustains a debt-to-GDP ratio that would cause collapse elsewhere due to its unique culture. Citizens patriotically buy and hold government debt, preventing the market panic that would typically ensue. This cultural factor allows it to delay an economic reckoning that seems inevitable by standard metrics.

When a government's deficit spending forces it to borrow new money simply to cover the interest on existing debt, it enters a self-perpetuating "debt death spiral." This weakens the nation's financial position until it either defaults or is forced to make brutal, unpopular cuts, risking internal turmoil.

Historically, countries crossing a 130% debt-to-GDP ratio experience revolution or collapse. As the U.S. approaches this threshold (currently 122%), its massive debt forces zero-sum political fights over a shrinking pie, directly fueling the social unrest and polarization seen today.

Economic uncertainty and anxiety are the root causes of political violence. When governments devalue currency through inflation and amass huge debts, they create the stressful conditions that history shows consistently lead to civil unrest.

Economist Peter Schiff highlights a historical pattern where countries, except for Japan, that surpass a 130% debt-to-GDP ratio experience internal strife, such as civil war or revolution. This is due to the inability to fund government programs, leading to societal breakdown and extreme political polarization.

Historically, every country that has sustained a debt-to-GDP ratio over 130% has ended up in open conflict, with the sole exception being culturally homogenous Japan. With the US approaching 123% amidst deep political division, it is on a dangerous trajectory toward guaranteed revolution or civil war.

Fiscal irresponsibility forces money printing, devaluing the dollar. This inflates asset prices, enriching the few who own assets (like stocks and real estate) while impoverishing the majority who live on income. This widening wealth gap fuels the populist anger and social division that manifests as civil unrest.