When national debt grows too large, an economy enters "fiscal dominance." The central bank loses its ability to manage the economy, as raising rates causes hyperinflation to cover debt payments while lowering them creates massive asset bubbles, leaving no good options.

To escape a debt crisis without total collapse, a nation must delicately balance four levers: austerity (spending less), debt restructuring, controlled money printing, and wealth redistribution. According to investor Ray Dalio, most countries fail to find this balance, resulting in an "ugly deleveraging" and societal chaos.

According to hedge fund manager Ray Dalio, the only historical path out of a terminal national debt cycle is a "beautiful deleveraging." This requires a painful but precisely balanced mix of austerity, debt forgiveness, wealth taxes, and printing money to avoid societal collapse.

Japan sustains a debt-to-GDP ratio that would cause collapse elsewhere due to its unique culture. Citizens patriotically buy and hold government debt, preventing the market panic that would typically ensue. This cultural factor allows it to delay an economic reckoning that seems inevitable by standard metrics.

When a government's deficit spending forces it to borrow new money simply to cover the interest on existing debt, it enters a self-perpetuating "debt death spiral." This weakens the nation's financial position until it either defaults or is forced to make brutal, unpopular cuts, risking internal turmoil.

Historically, countries crossing a 130% debt-to-GDP ratio experience revolution or collapse. As the U.S. approaches this threshold (currently 122%), its massive debt forces zero-sum political fights over a shrinking pie, directly fueling the social unrest and polarization seen today.

Economic uncertainty and anxiety are the root causes of political violence. When governments devalue currency through inflation and amass huge debts, they create the stressful conditions that history shows consistently lead to civil unrest.

Economist Peter Schiff highlights a historical pattern where countries, except for Japan, that surpass a 130% debt-to-GDP ratio experience internal strife, such as civil war or revolution. This is due to the inability to fund government programs, leading to societal breakdown and extreme political polarization.

A historical indicator of a superpower's decline is when its spending on debt servicing surpasses its military budget. The US crossed this threshold a few years ago, while China is massively increasing military spending. This economic framework offers a stark, quantitative lens through which to view the long-term power shift between the two nations.