A 100-year chart of the S&P 500 priced in gold shows a major cyclical peak was hit in late 2021, similar to 1929 and 2000. This inflection point suggests a long-term, decade-plus trend reversal favoring hard assets like gold and Bitcoin over U.S. equities.

High valuation metrics like the CAPE ratio seem alarming but are skewed by post-2008 currency printing. The "Price" in P/E ratios inflates due to debasement, while "Earnings" grow more slowly with GDP. This structural shift makes historical valuation averages an unreliable guide for today's market.

When governments print money to cover deficits, the value of the dollar decreases. This inflates the price of all assets, from stocks to real estate. Extreme wealth figures are a direct result of measuring valuable assets with a weaker currency, not just a product of individual value creation or greed.

While stock markets appear to be reaching all-time highs in dollar terms, this is an illusion created by currency devaluation. When the S&P 500's value is measured in a stable asset like gold, it has actually declined since the pre-COVID era. This reveals that gains are not from value creation but from a weaker dollar.

Inflationary policies needed to manage US debt will likely cause stocks to soar in nominal dollar terms while declining in real value. When measured against gold, the S&P 500 is already down 25% since 2022 despite its dollar-based gains, a trend that is expected to continue.

A market regime shift has occurred. While money printing used to primarily boost stocks and bonds, Marc Faber argues it now causes "sound currencies" like gold and silver to rise even faster, signaling a growing loss of confidence in the purchasing power of fiat currencies.

Measuring the S&P 500 against the price of gold, rather than in U.S. dollars, reveals that equities remain significantly below their dot-com bubble highs. This reframes the valuation debate, suggesting stocks are not as expensive as they seem and serve as a hedge against long-term currency debasement.

The argument against a market top is that high multiples are justified. In an era of sustained currency debasement, investors must hold assets like stocks to preserve purchasing power. This historical precedent suggests today's valuations might be a new, structurally higher baseline.

Investors often fixate on nominal returns relative to the dollar. However, the true measure of wealth is purchasing power. A 10% gain in the stock market is actually a net loss if inflation causes your living costs to rise by 20%, or if other assets like gold appreciate faster.