The "SaaS-pocalypse" isn't about AI replacing software overnight. Instead, AI's disruptive potential erases the decades-long growth certainty that justified high SaaS valuations. Investors are punishing this newfound unpredictability of future cash flows, regardless of current performance.

The slow growth of public SaaS isn't just an execution failure; it's a structural problem. We created so many VC-backed companies that markets became saturated, blocking adjacent expansion opportunities and creating a 'Total Addressable Market (TAM) trap'.

A significant shift has occurred: private equity firms are no longer actively pursuing acquisitions of solid SaaS companies that fall short of IPO scale. This disappearance of a reliable exit path forces VCs and founders to find new strategies for liquidity and growth.

Investing in a high-growth company like ClickHouse at a $15B valuation isn't complex; it's a direct bet on "growth persistence." The entire financial model hinges on the assumption that the recent, extreme growth rate will continue for another 2-3 years. Any premature deceleration invalidates the entry price.

Private market valuations are benchmarked against public multiples. Currently, public SaaS firms with 30% growth trade at 15-20x revenue, twice the historical average. If this 'bedrock price' reverts to its 7-8x mean, it will trigger a cascade of valuation drops across the private markets.

The ongoing decline in growth rates for public SaaS companies has created an existential crisis around revenue durability. Investors have lost confidence that traditional SaaS models can sustain growth in the face of AI disruption, leading to a massive valuation collapse.

For years, founders of profitable but slow-growing SaaS companies could rely on a private equity acquisition as a viable exit. That safety net is gone. PE firms are now just as wary of AI disruption and growth decay as VCs, leaving many 'pretty good' SaaS companies with no buyers.

The market has fundamentally reset how it values mature SaaS companies. No longer priced on revenue growth, they are now treated like industrial firms. The valuation bottom is only found when they trade at free cash flow multiples that fully account for stock-based compensation.

The market for hyper-growth tech companies now exists almost exclusively in private markets, with only 5% of public software firms growing over 25%. With companies staying private for 14+ years, public markets are now for mature, slower-growing businesses.