The key risk for Tesla investors isn't just execution failure. It's that the company could achieve its ambitious goals, but today's high valuation has already priced in that success. This means the business can perform exceptionally while the stock delivers mediocre or even negative returns.

Musk's pattern of making increasingly grandiose and unfulfilled promises is a deliberate strategy. It distracts media and investors from fundamental issues, like Tesla being valued as a tech monopoly instead of a car company.

While the loss of the tax credit will hurt sales short-term, it also removes the "government mandate" attack line used by politicians. This forces EVs to be judged as just another car, allowing them to compete on their own merits like lower operating costs and better performance.

Prominent investor Ross Gerber, despite being a SpaceX investor and Tesla driver, expressed deep concern over Elon Musk's behavior, particularly regarding alleged Epstein connections. He stated it's becoming difficult 'to justify in my own soul' the association, signaling a potential shift in sentiment among key supporters.

While investing in government-supported sectors like AI and semiconductors seems safe, it's a long-term risk. A government's priority is political—winning elections and preserving jobs—which will eventually conflict with an investor's goal of maximizing profit, leading to poor returns as seen in China.

While holding a long-term deep value thesis, ARK Invest actively trades high-conviction stocks. They trim positions when a stock like Tesla surges to 13-14% of the portfolio and buy back in during dips. This strategy uses the market's inherent volatility and controversy around a stock to rebalance and improve their cost basis.

When a president targets a specific corporate board member, it shifts markets from predictable, rules-based competition to a personality-driven system. Investors can price regulatory changes, but they struggle to price discretionary political targeting, which undermines market stability.

Reflecting on his own experiences, Elon Musk advises business leaders to stay out of politics. He concludes that engaging in the political arena is a 'blood sport' where opponents 'go for the jugular,' and that his conclusion is to do less of it.

A rational analysis of fundamentals like revenue and growth cannot justify the sky-high valuations of Musk's companies. The vast majority of their market cap is an intangible premium based on investor faith in his ability to deliver future breakthroughs, not on current performance.