The argument that the U.S. must race to build superintelligence before China is flawed. The Chinese Communist Party's primary goal is control. An uncontrollable AI poses a direct existential threat to their power, making them more likely to heavily regulate or halt its development rather than recklessly pursue it.
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The US AI strategy is dominated by a race to build a foundational "god in a box" Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). In contrast, China's state-directed approach currently prioritizes practical, narrow AI applications in manufacturing, agriculture, and healthcare to drive immediate economic productivity.
A key, informal safety layer against AI doom is the institutional self-preservation of the developers themselves. It's argued that labs like OpenAI or Google would not knowingly release a model they believed posed a genuine threat of overthrowing the government, opting instead to halt deployment and alert authorities.
The justification for accelerating AI development to beat China is logically flawed. It assumes the victor wields a controllable tool. In reality, both nations are racing to build the same uncontrollable AI, making the race itself, not the competitor, the primary existential threat.
The development of AI won't stop because of game theory. For competing nations like the US and China, the risk of falling behind is greater than the collective risk of developing the technology. This dynamic makes the AI race an unstoppable force, mirroring the Cold War nuclear arms race and rendering calls for a pause futile.
The idea that AI development is a winner-take-all race to AGI is a compelling story that simplifies complex realities. This narrative is strategically useful as it creates a pretext for aggressive, 'do whatever it takes' behavior, sidestepping the messier nature of real-world conflict.
A ban on superintelligence is self-defeating because enforcement would require a sanctioned, global government body to build the very technology it prohibits in order to "prove it's safe." This paradoxically creates a state-controlled monopoly on the most powerful technology ever conceived, posing a greater risk than a competitive landscape.
Chinese policymakers champion AI as a key driver of economic productivity but appear to be underestimating its potential for social upheaval. There is little indication they are planning for the mass displacement of the gig economy workforce, who will be the first casualties of automation. This focus on technological gains over social safety nets creates a significant future political risk.
While making powerful AI open-source creates risks from rogue actors, it is preferable to centralized control by a single entity. Widespread access acts as a deterrent based on mutually assured destruction, preventing any one group from using AI as a tool for absolute power.
The AI safety discourse in China is pragmatic, focusing on immediate economic impacts rather than long-term existential threats. The most palpable fear exists among developers, who directly experience the power of coding assistants and worry about job replacement, a stark contrast to the West's more philosophical concerns.
The AI safety community fears losing control of AI. However, achieving perfect control of a superintelligence is equally dangerous. It grants godlike power to flawed, unwise humans. A perfectly obedient super-tool serving a fallible master is just as catastrophic as a rogue agent.
