Industries widely considered "terrible businesses," like restaurants, often signal opportunity. The high failure rate is usually due to a low barrier to entry and a lack of business acumen among participants. A disciplined, business-first approach in such an environment can create a massive and durable competitive advantage.
Unattractive or morbid business ideas, such as cemetery management software, often face less competition. This lack of saturation means entrepreneurs willing to enter these "grim" niches have a higher probability of financial success and market capture.
David Chang posits that tech and venture capital are overly focused on the extremes of the restaurant industry: scalable, low-cost fast food and high-end, exclusive dining. He argues the real, unsolved challenge—and greatest opportunity—is creating technology and business models to help average, 'good' mom-and-pop restaurants survive and scale, as they represent the cultural backbone of the industry.
Focusing only on trendy sectors leads to intense competition where the vast majority of startups fail. True opportunity lies in contrarian ideas that others overlook or dismiss, as these markets have fewer competitors.
The margins of a single restaurant are too thin to justify the operational complexity and stress. Profitability and a sustainable business model emerge only when you scale to multiple locations, allowing you to amortize fixed costs and achieve operational efficiencies.
Unsexy markets like plumbing or law have less competition, higher profit margins, and customers who are more receptive to expertise. This creates an environment for faster growth, akin to driving on an empty road.
Legacy industries are often slow to adapt due to inertia and arrogance, creating massive opportunities. Flexport built a simple duty calculator in three days that the entire trade industry adopted, proving that a startup's key to success can be entering a field where competitors are technologically complacent.
A restaurant can survive with one of these three elements, has a good chance of success with two, and a very high likelihood of success with all three (barring financial mismanagement). This provides a clear framework for evaluating and building a hospitality concept.
Unlike tech, where exits are common and founders share their journeys, the restaurant world has few acquisitions. Successful operators rarely disclose their numbers or strategies, creating a "super opaque" environment for newcomers trying to learn the business of hospitality.
A restaurant concept's success or failure is immediately apparent; you know within the first month if customers want what you are offering. This rapid feedback loop contrasts sharply with tech startups that often spend over a year on MVPs before knowing if they have a viable business.
Many founders fail not from a lack of market opportunity, but from trying to serve too many customer types with too many offerings. This creates overwhelming complexity in marketing, sales, and product. Picking a narrow niche simplifies operations and creates a clearer path to traction and profitability.