Widespread user complaints suggest Microsoft's Copilot is underperforming, yet the company continues to bundle it and raise prices. This is a classic incumbent strategy: leveraging a locked-in customer base to extract value from a subpar product rather than competing on quality and user experience, creating an opening for more agile competitors.
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The primary threat from AI disruptors isn't immediate customer churn. Instead, incumbents get "maimed"—they keep their existing customer base but lose new deals and expansion revenue to AI-native tools, causing growth to stagnate over time.
Initially, Microsoft's go-to-market strategy was not to displace competitors but to displace customers' own internal development teams. They framed their software's price as a fraction of a company's fixed in-house engineering budget, a powerful value proposition that defined a new category of B2B sales.
Incumbents are disincentivized from creating cheaper, superior products that would cannibalize existing high-margin revenue streams. Organizational silos also hinder the creation of blended solutions that cross traditional product lines, creating opportunities for startups to innovate in the gaps.
Enterprise software budgets are growing, but the money is being reallocated. CIOs are forced to cut functional, "good-to-have" apps to pay for price increases from core vendors and to fund new AI tools. This means even happy customers of non-mission-critical software may churn as budgets are redirected to top priorities.
For incumbent software companies, an existing customer base is a double-edged sword. While it provides a distribution channel for new AI products, it also acts as "cement shoes." The technical debt and feature obligations to thousands of pre-AI customers can consume all engineering resources, preventing them from competing effectively with nimble, AI-native startups.
Before investing in new third-party AI tools, organizations should maximize their existing Microsoft stack. Using Copilot reduces software bloat, protects intellectual property by keeping data in-house, and leverages the integrated nature of Microsoft 365 for tasks like call analysis from Teams recordings.
A viral satirical tweet about deploying Microsoft Copilot highlights a common failure mode: companies purchase AI tools to signal innovation but neglect the essential change management, training, and use case development, resulting in near-zero actual usage or ROI.
Excel's market dominance stems from Microsoft's strategy of bundling it into the non-negotiable Microsoft Office suite. This made it impossible for enterprise customers to purchase software à la carte, effectively locking out competitors and making individual user preference irrelevant.
As the market leader, OpenAI has become risk-averse to avoid media backlash. This has “damaged the product,” making it overly cautious and less useful. Meanwhile, challengers like Google have adopted a risk-taking posture, allowing them to innovate faster. This shows how a defensive mindset can cede ground to hungrier competitors.
Sierra CEO Bret Taylor argues that transitioning from per-seat software licensing to value-based AI agents is a business model disruption, not just a technological one. Public companies struggle to navigate this shift as it creates a 'trough of despair' in quarterly earnings, threatening their core revenue before the new model matures.
