The centralizing technologies of the 20th century (mass media, mass production) are being superseded by decentralizing ones (internet, crypto). This is causing history to "run in reverse," with modern events mirroring 19th-century patterns like the rise of robber baron-like figures and the fracturing of empires.
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Contemporary China, with its maniacal building, corrupt systems, and creation of immense entrepreneurial wealth, strongly resembles America's late 19th-century Gilded Age. This historical parallel suggests China may be heading towards its own "Progressive Era" of technocratic reform and civil service improvements.
The S&P 500's heavy concentration in a few tech giants is not unprecedented. Historically, stock market returns have always clustered around the dominant technology transformation of the time. Before 1980, leaders were spinoffs of Standard Oil, car companies like GM, and General Electric, reflecting the industrial and automotive revolutions.
Society is splitting into two groups: "post-headline" people who rely on official media for validation, and "pre-headline" people (like Elon Musk) who synthesize raw, real-time data to act before the consensus forms. This information asymmetry is becoming a primary driver of wealth and power.
The current environment mirrors the late 19th century's first wave of globalization. Then, as now, rapid technological change concentrated wealth, fueling populism and nationalism that ultimately led to global conflict in 1914. We risk 'sleepwalking' into a similar catastrophe.
Like railroads, AI promises immense progress but also concentrates power, creating public fear of being controlled by a new monopoly. The populist uprisings by farmers against railroad companies in the 1880s offer a historical playbook for how a widespread, grassroots political movement against Big Tech could form.
As America's global dominance wanes, power is bifurcating into two distinct successor empires. China is winning the physical world of manufacturing and military hardware. Simultaneously, the internet is winning the digital world of media (AI, social) and money (crypto, smart contracts). This succession has already occurred but has not been fully priced in by global markets.
A consistent pattern shows innovators adopting the models of legacy players they displaced. YouTube creating cable-like bundles, Coinbase mirroring traditional banks, and Facebook becoming new media illustrates a natural lifecycle where disruptors eventually converge with the industries they set out to revolutionize.
Power is shifting from open participation in a global market to controlling access between siloed communities (e.g., finance, tech, government). Individuals who can bridge these worlds and broker relationships, like operators on a medieval trade route, accumulate immense power and value.
The period from 1870-1914 mirrors today's super cycle of innovation, wealth concentration, inequality, populism, nationalism, and geopolitical rivalry. This makes it a more relevant historical parallel for understanding current risks than the recent era of hyper-globalization.
The era of limited information sources allowed for a controlled, shared narrative. The current media landscape, with its volume and velocity of information, fractures consensus and erodes trust, making it nearly impossible for society to move forward in lockstep.
