Prediction markets are not just for betting. They are becoming a valuable source of predictive data for enterprises, as shown by new partnerships with media giants like CNN and CNBC. This dual-purpose model, functioning as both a consumer product and a B2B data service, creates two distinct revenue streams.

New platforms frame betting on future events as sophisticated 'trading,' akin to stock markets. This rebranding as 'prediction markets' helps them bypass traditional gambling regulations and attract users who might otherwise shun betting, positioning it as an intellectual or financial activity rather than a game of chance.

Speculation is often maligned as mere gambling, but it is a critical component for price discovery, liquidity, and risk transfer in any healthy financial market. Without speculators, markets would be inefficient. Prediction markets are an explicit tool to harness this power for accurate forecasting.

Investors don't need deep domain expertise to vet opportunities in complex industries. By breaking a problem down to its fundamentals—such as worker safety, project costs, and labor shortages in construction—the value of a solution becomes self-evident, enabling confident investment decisions.

Instead of simply holding Bitcoin, MicroStrategy layered on complex debt instruments like preferred stock. This convolution made it difficult for investors to understand the true risk and preference stack, contributing to the stock trading at a discount to its own assets when sentiment turned. Simplicity is safer.

Contrary to the perception that alternatives are complex, their core business models are often simpler than many public market instruments. The concept of direct lending (loaning money and collecting interest) is more straightforward for a retail investor to grasp than the mechanics of a structured note sold by a bank with embedded options.

While both involve risk, prediction markets like Polymarket allow for bets on real-world events where an individual can have a genuine analytical edge. This contrasts with the uninformed, "degenerate" speculation common in meme coins, offering a potentially more rational outlet for risk capital.

The true value of prediction markets lies beyond speculation. By requiring "skin in the game," they aggregate the wisdom of crowds into a reliable forecasting tool, creating a source of truth that is more accurate than traditional polling. The trading is the work that produces the information.

The next evolution of finance will break away from the traditional "portfolio and search box" interface. Instead, trading will be embedded directly into new contexts and "modalities." Examples include trading via Telegram bots, placing micro-bets on live sports via a TV interface, or interacting with prediction markets directly within a news article.