To navigate extreme uncertainty like unpredictable tariffs, Walmart's buyers use tangible, seasonal purchasing decisions (e.g., Halloween costumes) as a framework. They run detailed "what-if" scenarios on pricing, sourcing, and consumer behavior to make concrete decisions despite ambiguity.

Legacy industries are often slow to adapt due to inertia and arrogance, creating massive opportunities. Flexport built a simple duty calculator in three days that the entire trade industry adopted, proving that a startup's key to success can be entering a field where competitors are technologically complacent.

In a volatile market with unpredictable factors like tariffs and supply chain issues, long-term plans quickly become obsolete. Macy's CEO operates with a "rolling operating forecast" updated weekly, admitting they are on the 27th version for the year, prioritizing real-time data over static, months-old plans.

The traditional model of being either a wartime or peacetime leader is outdated. In today's volatile environment, leaders must be fluid, adapting their style day-to-day to handle both long-term strategic initiatives (peacetime) and immediate crises like unexpected tariffs (wartime).

The proposal to levy tariffs and then issue rebate checks is economically nonsensical. It creates massive bureaucratic leakage, making it more efficient to simply not have the tariffs. Furthermore, the policy uncertainty paralyzes businesses, creating non-economic costs that are more damaging than the direct financial impact of the tariffs.

Trump's 'hokey pokey' with tariffs and threats isn't indecisiveness but a consistent strategy: make an agreement, threaten a severe and immediate penalty for breaking it, and actually follow through. This makes his threats credible and functions as a powerful deterrent that administrations lacking his perceived volatility cannot replicate.

When trade policies force allies like Canada to find new partners, it's not a temporary shift. They build new infrastructure and relationships that won't be abandoned even if the political climate changes. The trust is broken, making the economic damage long-lasting and difficult to repair.

A founder's retrospective analysis often reveals that delayed decisions were the correct ones, and the only regret is not acting sooner. Recognizing this pattern—that you rarely regret moving too fast—can serve as a powerful heuristic to trust your gut and accelerate decision-making, as inaction is often the biggest risk.

While the U.S. oscillates between trade policies with each new administration, China executes consistent long-term plans, like shifting to high-quality exports. This decisiveness has enabled China to find new global markets and achieve a record trade surplus, effectively outmaneuvering U.S. tactics.