In neoadjuvant settings, ctDNA monitoring allows for real-time therapy adjustment. Data from the iSpy platform shows 80% of hormone-positive patients clear ctDNA with half the chemotherapy, enabling de-escalation, while the remaining 20% can be identified for escalated treatment.

An FDA analysis showed the survival curve for kidney cancer patients on IO-IO therapy (ipinevo) is much flatter for those with early tumor growth compared to IO-TKI regimens. This suggests early progression on a dual-mechanism IO-TKI therapy indicates true resistance, while on IO-IO it could be delayed response.

A patient's time to progression on first-line CDK4/6 inhibitor therapy acts as an informal biomarker. A shorter duration, such as 14 months, is viewed by experts as "not so great" and indicates a degree of underlying endocrine resistance that influences subsequent treatment strategies.

The original Signatera assay used 16 personalized probes based on whole-exome sequencing to find ctDNA. The next-generation version, based on whole-genome sequencing, expands this to 64 probes. This is expected to significantly increase sensitivity, detect molecular relapse earlier, and provide a longer window for clinical intervention.

The next wave of ctDNA research focuses on de-escalation. Trials like SIGNAL ER101 and an Alliance cooperative group study will test withholding intensive adjuvant treatments (like CDK4/6 inhibitors) in high-risk, ctDNA-negative patients, initiating therapy only if they turn positive later. This could spare many from toxicity and cost.

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) analysis allows for early detection of resistance mechanisms, such as secondary FGFR2 mutations, before tumors show growth on scans. This provides a potential window to adjust treatment strategies proactively, offering an advantage over traditional imaging-based monitoring.

Data from trials like CheckMate 816 shows that achieving a Pathologic Complete Response (PCR) after neoadjuvant chemo-immunotherapy is a powerful early surrogate endpoint. Patients with PCR demonstrate markedly improved overall and event-free survival.

While depth of response strongly predicts survival for an individual patient, the FDA analysis concludes it cannot yet be used as a surrogate endpoint to replace overall survival in pivotal clinical trials. It serves as a measure of drug activity, similar to response rate, but is not sufficient for drug approval on its own.

The standard of care for GIST is evolving to mandate molecular testing at two key points: initial diagnosis and at the time of progression on first-line therapy. Using ctDNA at progression is now deemed critical to identify acquired resistance mechanisms, which directly informs the selection of subsequent, more effective therapies and avoids ineffective treatments.