The main barrier to widespread ctDNA use is not its proven ability to predict who will recur (prognostic value). The challenge is the emerging, but not yet definitive, data on its ability to predict a patient's response to a specific therapy (predictive value).
Contrary to some physicians' concerns, patient survey data shows that over 80% value ctDNA testing. They perceive it not as a source of anxiety, but as a way to be proactive in their care. This finding dismantles a key argument used by some clinicians to resist adoption.
A positive ctDNA test indicating minimal residual disease is strongly linked to recurrence. This expert argues clinicians have an obligation to act on this information, even without definitive guidelines. Framing inaction as unacceptable challenges the passive "wait-and-see" approach.
In neoadjuvant settings, ctDNA monitoring allows for real-time therapy adjustment. Data from the iSpy platform shows 80% of hormone-positive patients clear ctDNA with half the chemotherapy, enabling de-escalation, while the remaining 20% can be identified for escalated treatment.
A subset of breast cancers (10-15%) are "non-shedders," meaning they don't release detectable ctDNA. Patients with these tumors have excellent outcomes regardless of chemotherapy, suggesting that surgery alone might be a sufficient and less toxic treatment for this specific group.
In neoadjuvant therapy, a patient's long-term outcome is better predicted by stopping tumor DNA shedding (ctDNA clearance) than by achieving pathologic complete response (pCR), the traditional gold standard. This redefines what constitutes a successful treatment response before surgery.