In neoadjuvant breast cancer treatment, patients with residual cancer post-therapy remain at high risk of recurrence (10-20%) even if their ctDNA tests are negative. This finding suggests that the physical presence of residual disease is a critical factor, and ctDNA status alone cannot justify forgoing additional adjuvant therapy in this cohort.
The original Signatera assay used 16 personalized probes based on whole-exome sequencing to find ctDNA. The next-generation version, based on whole-genome sequencing, expands this to 64 probes. This is expected to significantly increase sensitivity, detect molecular relapse earlier, and provide a longer window for clinical intervention.
Dr. Pusztai clarifies the ctDNA lexicon: "Molecular relapse" is when a supposedly cured patient turns ctDNA positive during surveillance. "Molecular progression" is when a metastatic patient on therapy develops new resistance mutations detectable in ctDNA before clinical progression. This specific terminology is key for precise clinical decision-making.
Hematologic cancers often have a single, common genetic marker per disease, enabling MRD detection with simple PCR for decades. Solid tumors are genetically diverse, lacking a universal marker. This required developing personalized, multi-probe assays like Signatera to track unique mutations, explaining the field's more recent progress.
The next wave of ctDNA research focuses on de-escalation. Trials like SIGNAL ER101 and an Alliance cooperative group study will test withholding intensive adjuvant treatments (like CDK4/6 inhibitors) in high-risk, ctDNA-negative patients, initiating therapy only if they turn positive later. This could spare many from toxicity and cost.
Despite low individual recurrence rates, the vast number of women diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer means they account for most deaths. The annual proportion of deaths from stage 2 disease rose from 26% to 40%, while stage 1 accounts for another 23%. This highlights the need for better monitoring, like ctDNA, in this population.