Contrary to the belief that exchanges have ever-increasing pricing power, CME's CEO claims its per-contract price is now cheaper than it was 25 years ago. This is achieved through a volume-based strategy, similar to Walmart, where massive increases in trading activity allow for lower individual transaction costs.

Despite recent concerns about private credit quality, the most rapid and substantial growth in debt since the GFC has occurred in the government sector. This makes the government bond market, not private credit, the most likely source of a future systemic crisis, especially in a rising rate environment.

While tariffs were a dominant market concern previously, they have fallen in priority for investors. The primary focus has shifted to more systemic risks, including the potential for fiscal dominance over the Federal Reserve and the long-term trend of "de-dollarization" among global institutions.

While fast-moving, unregulated competitors like FTX garner hype, a deliberate, compliance-first approach builds a more resilient and defensible business in sectors like finance. This unsexy path is the key to building a lasting, mainstream company with a strong regulatory moat.

In a novel attempt to delay a debt crisis, policymakers are pushing for regulations that would force stablecoin issuers to back their digital dollars one-to-one with U.S. Treasuries. This cleverly creates a new, captive international market for government debt, helping to prop up the system.

Since 2022, highly leveraged hedge funds have bought 37% of net long-term Treasury issuance. This concentration makes the world’s most important market exceptionally vulnerable, as any volatility spike could trigger forced mass selling (degrossing) from these funds.

CME Group's CEO uses the analogy of Sears being disrupted by Amazon to explain the strategic imperative for embracing retail trading. The fear of becoming obsolete by failing to adapt to new market participants and technologies is a primary motivator for legacy exchanges to partner with modern platforms like FanDuel.

Prediction market platforms are promoting their products as 'CFTC-approved,' but this is misleading. They use a self-certification process where the CFTC has 24 hours to object. A lack of objection is not an endorsement, a critical distinction that CME's CEO argues is not being disclosed to retail users.

For stablecoin companies like Tether seeking legitimacy in the US market, the simplest path is to back their assets with US treasuries. This aligns their interests with the US government, turning a potential adversary into a welcome buyer of national debt, even if it means lower returns compared to riskier assets.