A truly passive portfolio would own all global financial assets in proportion to their market value. However, this is impossible because many assets, like government-held bonds or restricted foreign stocks, are not available to public investors, making every real-world index fund an active bet.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, the massive flow of capital into passive indexes and short-term systematic strategies has reduced the number of actors focused on long-term fundamentals. This creates price dislocations and volatility, offering alpha for patient investors.
Daniel Gladys argues that as passive investing grows, fewer participants focus on fundamentals. This widens the gap between a stock's price and its intrinsic value, creating a favorable environment for disciplined value investors who can identify these overlooked opportunities.
Trying to beat the market by active trading is a losing game against professionals with vast resources. A simple, automated strategy of consistently investing in diversified ETFs or index funds mitigates risk and leverages long-term market growth without emotional decision-making.
Most of an index's returns come from a tiny fraction of its component stocks (e.g., 7% of the Russell 3000). The goal of indexing isn't just diversification; it's a strategy to ensure you own the unpredictable "tail-event" winners, like the next Amazon, that are nearly impossible to identify in advance.
Active management is more viable in emerging markets than in the US. The largest EM ETF (EEM) has a high 0.72% expense ratio, the universe of stocks is twice as large as the US, and analyst coverage is sparse. This creates significant opportunities for skilled stock pickers to outperform passive strategies.
The dominance of low-cost index funds means active managers cannot compete in liquid, efficient markets. Survival depends on creating strategies in areas Vanguard can't easily replicate, such as illiquid micro-caps, niche geographies, or complex sectors that require specialized data and analysis.
Market-cap-weighted indexes create a perverse momentum loop. As a stock's price rises, its weight in the index increases, forcing new passive capital to buy more of it at inflated prices. This mechanism is the structural opposite of a value-oriented 'buy low, sell high' discipline.
Unlike a market-cap-weighted stock index driven by competition, an aggregate bond index is dominated by the largest issuer: the U.S. government. The index mechanically buys whatever debt the government issues, regardless of duration risk or investor interests.
Contrary to classic theory, markets may be growing less efficient. This is driven not only by passive indexing but also by a structural shift in active management towards short-term, quantitative strategies that prioritize immediate price movements over long-term fundamental value.
Jack Bogle's indexing assumed efficient markets where passive funds accept prices. Now, with passive strategies dominating capital flows, they collectively set prices. This ironically creates the market inefficiencies and price distortions that the original theory assumed didn't exist on such a large scale.