Most of an index's returns come from a tiny fraction of its component stocks (e.g., 7% of the Russell 3000). The goal of indexing isn't just diversification; it's a strategy to ensure you own the unpredictable "tail-event" winners, like the next Amazon, that are nearly impossible to identify in advance.

The market is a 'Player vs. Player vs. Environment' game where retail investors play against pros trying to take their money (PvP) amid unpredictable global events (PvE). The only reliable winning strategy for the average person is to refuse to play the short-term PvP game and instead invest long-term.

A Wall Street Journal experiment pitted a monkey throwing darts at a stock list against professional traders. Over a ten-year span, the monkey's long-term, passive 'buy-and-hold' strategy won. This demonstrates the power of long-term investing over short-term, active trading.

Contrary to classic theory, markets may be growing less efficient. This is driven not only by passive indexing but also by a structural shift in active management towards short-term, quantitative strategies that prioritize immediate price movements over long-term fundamental value.

Even if an investor had perfect foresight to buy only at market bottoms, they would likely underperform someone who simply invests the same amount every month. The reason is that the 'market timer' holds cash for extended periods while waiting for a dip, missing out on the market's general upward trend, which often makes new bottoms higher than previous entry points.

The financial industry systematically funnels average investors into index funds not just for efficiency, but from a belief that 'mom and pop savers are considered too stupid to handle their own money.' This creates a system where the wealthy receive personalized stock advice and white-glove treatment, while smaller investors get a generic, low-effort solution that limits their potential wealth.

The highest-performing strategies often have extreme volatility that causes investors to abandon them at the worst times. Consistency with a 'good enough' strategy that fits your temperament leads to better real-world results than chasing perfection.

The stock market is like a casino rigged for savvy players. Instead of trying to beat them at individual games (stock picking), the average investor should "bet on the game itself" by consistently investing in broad market index funds. This long-term strategy of owning the whole "casino" effectively guarantees a win.

John Bogle's wisdom holds that the optimal investment strategy isn't based on historical performance but on what deeply resonates with your core beliefs. This ensures you'll stick with it during inevitable downturns, preventing the performance-destroying behavior of return chasing.