The math used for training AI—minimizing the gap between an internal model and external reality—also governs economics. Successful economic agents (individuals, companies, societies) are those with the most accurate internal maps of reality, allowing them to better predict outcomes and persist over time.

The US economy is not broadly strong; its perceived strength is almost entirely driven by a massive, concentrated bet on AI. This singular focus props up markets and growth metrics, but it conceals widespread weakness in other sectors, creating a high-stakes, fragile economic situation.

Agentic commerce isn't just a substitute for existing online shopping. It can unlock new spending from high-income individuals whose primary barrier to consumption is time, not money. By automating purchasing, agents reduce this "time cost of consumption," potentially adding new, incremental dollars to the economy.

During major platform shifts like AI, it's tempting to project that companies will capture all the value they create. However, competitive forces ensure the vast majority of productivity gains (the "surplus") flows to end-users, not the technology creators.

The narrative of AI destroying jobs misses a key point: AI allows companies to 'hire software for a dollar' for tasks that were never economical to assign to humans. This will unlock new services and expand the economy, creating demand in areas that previously didn't exist.

In an unpredictable AI-driven job market, the most reliable path to financial security is not a specific skill but owning assets. This allows individuals to participate in the massive wealth generated by the technology itself, providing a hedge against inflation and potential job displacement, and avoiding a future of dependency on government assistance.

The U.S. economy can no longer be analyzed as a single entity. It has split into two distinct economies: one for the thriving top tier (e.g., AI and tech) and another for the struggling bottom 60%. The entire system now depends on spending from the rich; if they stop, the economy collapses.

The top 10% of earners, who drive 50% of consumer spending, can slash discretionary purchases overnight based on stock market fluctuations. This makes the economy more volatile than one supported by the stable, non-discretionary spending of the middle class, creating systemic fragility.

The top 10% of US earners now drive nearly half of all consumer spending. This concentration suggests the macro-economy and stock market can remain strong even if AI causes significant unemployment for the other 90%, challenging the assumption that widespread job loss would automatically trigger an economic collapse.