Gaonkar identifies her biggest error with NVIDIA wasn't selling too early, but failing to re-evaluate and buy back in later. The psychological pain of "sunk cost bias" makes it incredibly difficult to re-enter a position at a higher price, even when the fundamental thesis has improved.

Major AI labs plan and purchase GPUs on multi-year timelines. This means NVIDIA's current stellar earnings reports reflect long-term capital commitments, not necessarily current consumer usage, potentially masking a slowdown in services like ChatGPT.

The concern with NVIDIA isn't a simple stock correction. Because a few tech giants represent such a huge portion of the S&P 500, a significant drop in NVIDIA's value could trigger a cascading failure, taking the entire global economy down with it.

Despite massive growth, Nvidia's stock trades at a modest 24x earnings multiple, implying the market is pricing in a 'peak year' scenario. In contrast, AI ecosystem partners like AMD and Broadcom have higher multiples, suggesting greater investor confidence in the long-term AI cycle itself.

Despite bubble fears, Nvidia’s record earnings signal a virtuous cycle. The real long-term growth is not just from model training but from the coming explosion in inference demand required for AI agents, robotics, and multimodal AI integrated into every device and application.

The global economy's dependence on AI has created a massive concentration of risk in NVIDIA. Its valuation, exceeding the entire German stock market, makes it a single point of failure. A significant drop in its stock—which could still leave it overvalued—would have catastrophic ripple effects with nowhere for capital to hide.

A company can beat earnings and still see its stock fall if its actions (e.g., high CapEx) contradict the prevailing market narrative (e.g., the AI bubble is popping). Price is driven by future expectations, not just present-day results.

A first-principles analysis shows that for NVIDIA's stock price to be justified, the company would need to pay out 100% of its revenue as dividends for 10 years, with zero costs, R&D, or taxes. This highlights how detached hype-driven valuations can be from fundamental business reality.

Despite reporting remarkable revenue acceleration and beating guidance, Nvidia's stock declined. Analysts believe this wasn't due to the results themselves, but to pre-existing background concerns about the sustainability of hyperscaler CapEx and future competition. This shows how a market priced for perfection can disconnect from stellar short-term fundamentals.