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Doubling the human lifespan could have a negative societal impact. Since generational turnover drives change and innovation, allowing an older generation to accumulate and hold power, wealth, and influence for longer periods could lead to profound societal stagnation.
As technology moves from healing to enhancement (e.g., 100x vision), it could create a permanent societal divide. If these augmentations are expensive, it may lead to a caste system where an enhanced elite possesses superior physical and cognitive abilities not available to the general population.
The doubling of average life expectancy in 150 years is due to public health, medicine, and nutrition mitigating early-life deaths. The maximum human lifespan remains stalled around 120 years because we haven't yet made significant progress in slowing the fundamental biological process of aging.
Society must abandon chronological age as a proxy for ability. People in their 30s can be non-functional, while centenarians can be perfectly functional. The focus should shift to an individual's actual health and capacity, unlocking the potential of older individuals instead of devaluing them based on their birth date.
Contrary to the ageist view that an older population drains resources, healthy older individuals represent a massive, untapped asset. Their accumulated wisdom, experience, and wealth are a form of "gold" that society must learn to mine by creating opportunities rather than pushing them aside.
Economic growth from innovation slows in aging societies for two reasons. First, there are fewer young potential innovators. Second, and less obviously, the market for new products and ideas is predominantly young. An older consumer base is more set in its ways, creating less demand for and absorption of innovation.
Anti-aging treatments will pay for themselves by eliminating the enormous medical costs of late-life health problems. This creates a powerful economic imperative for governments to ensure universal access, countering the common fear that such therapies will only be available to the wealthy.
Drawing from biology, increased safety and prosperity cause humans to adopt a "slow life" strategy. Expecting to live longer, we invest in the future and avoid risks (like smoking or teen pregnancy), which also dampens the bold risk-taking that fuels creativity.
Despite believing aging is solvable, Elon Musk hesitates to focus on it. He argues that death is a necessary feature for society, as it prevents "ossification" by ensuring older, change-averse leaders are eventually replaced by new generations with fresh ideas.
While a stationary, no-growth economy is economically feasible, Nobel laureate Robert Solow warns it poses a major social threat. Without new industries and opportunities for disruption, social mobility would stagnate, potentially entrenching existing power structures and creating a hereditary elite.
Extending life indefinitely would trap society with an aging population past its most creative and irreverent years. Since progress relies on fresh, disruptive ideas from the young, eternal life for the entrenched older generation would halt cultural and civilizational advancement.