Durable Capital's process includes a mandatory three-year look-back for every investment, comparing the original thesis to reality. This is crucial because while small deviations can be excused quarterly, compounding them over 12 quarters reveals significant thesis drift. The formal review forces an intellectually honest assessment of whether a slow-moving problem has become critical.

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Permira's co-CEO highlights a critical challenge in industries with long feedback loops, like private equity: the temptation to prematurely kill initiatives that appear to be failing. The key leadership skill is discerning if a strategy is flawed or simply needs more time to compound.

Effective due diligence isn't a checklist, but the collection of many small data points—revenue, team retention, customer love, CVC interest. A strong investment is a "beam" where all points align positively. Any misalignment creates doubt and likely signals a "no," adhering to the "if it's not a hell yes, it's a no" rule.

When launching a new strategy, define the specific go/no-go decision criteria on paper from day one. This prevents "revisionist history" where success metrics are redefined later based on new fact patterns or biases. This practice forces discipline and creates clear accountability for future reviews.

Before concluding a company can sustain extraordinary growth, consult historical data ('base rates') on how many similar companies succeeded in the past. This 'outside view,' a concept from investor Michael Mauboussin, provides a crucial reality check against overly optimistic forecasts.

Venture capital returns materialize over a decade, making short-term outputs like markups unreliable 'mirages.' Sequoia instead measures partners on tangible inputs. They are reviewed semi-annually on the quality of their decision-making process (e.g., investment memos) and their adherence to core team values, not on premature financial metrics.

To avoid emotional, performance-chasing mistakes, write down your selling criteria in advance and intentionally exclude recent performance from the list. This forces a focus on more rational reasons, such as a broken investment thesis, manager changes, excessive fees, or shifting personal goals, thereby preventing reactionary decisions based on market noise.

An investor can have pages of notes yet still lack clarity. The most critical step is synthesizing this raw data by writing a cohesive narrative. This act of writing forces critical thinking, connects disparate points, and elevates understanding in a way that passive consumption cannot.

Instead of an immediate post-close review, conduct retrospectives 6-12 months later. The true quality of due diligence and strategic fit can only be assessed after operating the business for a period. This delay provides deeper insights into what was missed or correctly identified, leading to more meaningful process improvements.

To combat the urge for constant activity, which often harms returns, investor Stig Brodersen intentionally reviews his portfolio's performance only once a year. This forces a long-term perspective and prevents emotional, short-sighted trading based on market fluctuations.

While having a disciplined rule like reviewing a stock after 24 months is useful, it should be subordinate to a more critical rule: sell immediately if the fundamental investment thesis breaks. This flexibility prevents holding onto a losing position simply to adhere to a predefined timeline.

A Mandatory Three-Year Memo Review Exposes "Death by a Thousand Cuts" Thesis Drift | RiffOn