Nations increasingly use sanctions and tariffs as weapons, risking a destructive race to the bottom. A new international doctrine is needed to establish rules of engagement for economic statecraft, much like the Geneva Conventions govern military conflict, to preserve the global economy.

Modern global conflict is primarily economic, not kinetic. Nations now engage in strategic warfare through currency debasement, asset seizures, and manipulating capital flows. The objective is to inflict maximum financial damage on adversaries, making economic policy a primary weapon of war.

While a unipolar world led by one's own country is advantageous, a multipolar world with competing powers like the U.S. and China creates a dynamic tension. This competition may force more compromised global decisions, potentially leading to a more balanced, albeit more tense, international system than one dominated by a single unchallenged power.

The US is not facing a single issue but a convergence of multiple stressors. Unsustainable fiscal policy, fragile funding markets, geopolitical shifts, energy production issues, and leveraged financial players create a highly volatile environment where one failure could trigger a cascade.

The global economy proved more resilient than feared due to three factors: stronger institutions built after the 2008 financial crisis, the private sector's agility in absorbing shocks like tariffs, and the fact that widespread retaliatory trade wars did not fully materialize.

Officials at IMF meetings expressed surprise at how little the Trump administration has focused on foreign exchange rates. There is a growing expectation that this could change next year, with a renewed focus on the dollar if the US trade deficit fails to normalize, creating a latent political risk.

Recognizing that investment capabilities alone are insufficient, Temasek proactively established a geopolitical team and a Washington D.C. office in 2017. This was done not in reaction to a crisis but in anticipation of global shifts that could have widespread ramifications on their portfolio.

The post-Cold War era of stability is over. The world is returning to an 'Old Normal' where great power conflict plays out in the economic arena. This new state is defined by fiscal dominance, weaponized supply chains, and structurally higher inflation, risk premia, and volatility.

Since the IMF's most critical decisions require an 85% supermajority vote, the United States' 17% quota share effectively grants it veto power. No major strategic decision can pass without U.S. approval, cementing its central role in global financial governance.