Leasing velocity in sectors like office and retail is improving as the market gains clarity. The vague "office apocalypse" story has been replaced by a more nuanced understanding that only 15-20% of office stock is truly obsolete. This certainty allows tenants and landlords to confidently make long-term leasing decisions again.

CBRE's research shows a strong correlation where changes in venture capital funding for life sciences predict employment trends 9 to 18 months later. With VC funding up 33% in the first half of the year, a sustained increase in hiring is expected, providing a clear forecasting model for talent and space planning.

The push to on-shore biopharmaceutical manufacturing, resulting in 22 new U.S. sites and 45,000 jobs, is creating a significant talent shortage. Expertise is concentrated on the coasts and in Europe, far from the 'heartland' where many new facilities are being built, posing a major operational challenge.

Contrary to popular belief, recent life sciences employment growth (2024-2025) was strongest not in the "Big Three" hubs, but in markets like Chicago, NYC, and Los Angeles. Meanwhile, the Bay Area and Boston experienced continued declines, challenging assumptions about where the industry is expanding.

The life sciences job market recovery didn't happen all at once. It began with pharmaceutical manufacturing in 2024, followed by testing labs in 2025, and only recently reached biotech R&D in 2026. This sub-sector-led turnaround provides a nuanced view of the market's health.

While AI firms are leasing office space now, the widespread adoption of AI will likely reduce the need for office workers across many industries. This long-term trend of job displacement is expected to create far more vacancy than the current leasing from AI companies fills.

The US commercial real estate recovery isn't from a post-pandemic return to office. It's a supply-side correction: new construction has plummeted while old buildings are demolished or converted, causing total office space to shrink for the first time in 25 years.

While fears of a commercial property crisis peaked in early 2023, the worst-case scenarios failed to materialize. Key indicators are now showing a clear recovery, with transaction volumes, prices, and debt origination all rising. This suggests a disconnect between lingering negative sentiment and improving on-the-ground fundamentals.

Recent poor REIT performance isn't a sign of a broken model. It's the result of a classic capital cycle where cheap money in 2021 fueled a building boom, leading to a supply glut in 2023-24. With new construction now halted, the cycle is turning favorable.