The 60/40 portfolio is obsolete because bonds, laden with credit risk, no longer offer safety. A resilient modern portfolio requires a broader mix of uncorrelated assets: cash, gold, currencies, commodities like oil and food, and short-term government debt, while actively avoiding corporate credit.
Reconcile contradictory advice by segmenting your capital. Hold years of living expenses in cash for short-term security and peace of mind. Separately, invest money you won't need for 10-25 years into assets to combat long-term inflation. The two strategies serve different, non-conflicting purposes.
Contrary to the common advice of full index fund allocation for beginners, Jim Cramer advocates for a hybrid approach. He suggests placing half of savings in diversified index funds for their defensive characteristics, but dedicating the other half to a concentrated portfolio of five individual stocks plus a hedge like gold or Bitcoin, arguing this is the 'real path to riches.'
With dollar correlations at elevated levels, finding cheap, clean directional expressions against the dollar is challenging. Sophisticated traders are creating bearish dollar baskets that mix G10 currencies (AUD, NOK) with Emerging Market currencies (HUF, ZAR) to achieve greater pricing efficiency.
During profound economic instability, the winning strategy isn't chasing the highest returns, but rather avoiding catastrophic loss. The greatest risks are not missed upside, but holding only cash as inflation erodes its value or relying solely on a paycheck.
BlackRock's CIO of Global Fixed Income argues that unlike equities, fixed income is about consistently getting paid back. The optimal strategy is broad diversification—tilting odds slightly in your favor and repeating it—rather than making concentrated, high-conviction "bravado" bets on specific market segments.
Unlike in 1971 when the U.S. unilaterally left the gold standard, today's rally is driven by foreign central banks losing confidence in the U.S. dollar. They are actively divesting from dollars into gold, indicating a systemic shift in the global monetary order, not just a U.S. policy change.
Called "upside investing," this strategy involves creating a baseline financial plan using only safe assets, assuming all stock investments go to zero. This establishes a guaranteed floor for your living standard, ensuring any market gains are purely upside without risking your core lifestyle.
For 40 years, falling rates pushed 'safe' bond funds into increasingly risky assets to chase yield. With rates now rising, these mis-categorized portfolios are the most vulnerable part of the financial system. A crisis in credit or sovereign debt is more probable than a stock-market-led crash.
Contrary to the retail investor's focus on high-yield funds, the 'smart money' first ensures the safety of their capital. They allocate the majority of their portfolio (50-70%) to secure assets, protecting their core fortune before taking calculated risks with the remainder.
To navigate an era of government debt overwhelming monetary policy, investor Lynn Alden proposes a specific three-pillar portfolio. It allocates 50% to profitable equities, 20% to cash for optionality, and a significant 30% to inflation-hedging hard assets like commodities, precious metals, and Bitcoin.