When the IPO window opens, nearly every stakeholder—from bankers and lawyers to VCs and management—is financially motivated to go public. This collective "irrational exuberance" can lead to a rush of mixed-quality companies, perpetuating the industry's historical boom-bust IPO cycles.

Biotech leaders often fixate on share price after an IPO, but trading volume is the more important metric for long-term health. High liquidity attracts institutional investors and makes it easier to raise future capital. A stock that "trades by appointment" due to low volume signals a lack of interest and severely limits a company's financial options.

Unlike the 2020-2022 bubble, the expected wave of biotech IPOs features mid-to-late-stage companies with de-risked assets. The market's recent discipline, forced by a tough funding environment, has created a backlog of high-quality private companies that are better prepared for public markets than their predecessors.

The reopening of the biotech IPO market is fragile. A key risk identified by investors is a series of failed IPOs, which could halt the sector's positive momentum. Consequently, there is intense pressure on bankers and VCs to exhibit "quality discipline," ensuring that only the most mature and high-potential companies go public first to build a track record of success.

In the current market, companies prioritize liquidity and public market access over protecting previous private valuations. A lower IPO price is no longer seen as a failure but as a necessary market correction to move forward and ensure survival.

Venture capitalist Bruce Booth explains that bankers, lawyers, audit firms, and VCs all have strong financial incentives for a company to go public. This creates systemic pressure that may not align with the company's best long-term interests.

After the 2007-2013 biotech IPO drought, Portola Pharmaceuticals successfully went public by setting reasonable expectations. The goal wasn't a sky-high valuation but to gain liquidity and access to capital, recognizing the IPO is a starting line, not a finish line, for value creation.

As the IPO window reopens, the initial companies going public are likely those that couldn't get out during choppier markets. Venture investors with "surefire winners" are probably waiting, meaning the highest quality IPO candidates are yet to come, posing a risk for early investors jumping back in.

The closed IPO window forced many private biotech companies to achieve significant clinical milestones, like Phase 2 proof-of-concept, while still private. This has created an unusual cohort of well-seasoned, de-risked companies with attractive valuations, poised to be highly appealing to public investors.