The difficulty in hiring young talent is not a temporary trend but a "new ice age." It is driven by a smaller Gen Z population compared to millennials. The problem will worsen: within a decade, more people over 65 will be leaving careers than 16-year-olds are starting them, creating a long-term demographic crisis for employers.

Companies are avoiding layoffs but have exhausted all other cost-cutting measures: slowing hiring to near-zero, cutting hours, and reducing temp staff. This "firewall" against recession is the only thing holding up the labor market, but it leaves businesses with no other levers to pull if demand weakens further.

Instead of replacing leaders at each growth stage, the Uber Eats management team was built like an "organism" with complementary strengths and was kept largely intact from launch to a $20 billion run rate. This proves a cohesive team that can learn together is more valuable than constantly hiring for "scale experience."

The long-held belief that companies are "hoarding" labor due to post-pandemic hiring scars is becoming a weaker argument. As economic pessimism grows, the pressure to cut costs should eventually force layoffs, making the continued low layoff rate increasingly puzzling and harder to explain solely by this factor.

AI is a key factor in the current labor market stagnation. Companies are reluctant to hire as they assess AI's long-term impact on staffing needs. At the same time, they are holding onto experienced employees who are crucial for implementing and integrating the new AI technologies, thus suppressing layoffs.

By paying staff up to 150% above the industry average, Trader Joe's creates a significant operating advantage. This investment leads to extremely low turnover (one-tenth the industry average), reducing hiring and training costs while fostering a knowledgeable, happy workforce that improves the customer experience.

According to an ex-employee, Google had an unwritten policy to retain intelligent but underperforming staff. The rationale was that they might become productive again, but more importantly, it prevented competitors from acquiring top talent, effectively treating talent as a scarce resource to be stockpiled.

The restaurant industry, historically reliant on undocumented immigrants, faces a severe labor shortage due to tighter immigration. This has shrunk the pool of experienced cooks, causing the value of remaining documented workers to skyrocket. Wages now average nearly double the local minimum wage.

Companies that over-hired in 2022 are now stuck with expensive employees who won't leave due to a weak job market. This creates a bottleneck, forcing companies to eventually lay off these 'seniors' to make room for new, cheaper 'freshmen' hires, signaling a turn in the labor market.