The U.S. has a unique global advantage in attracting the world's most brilliant minds, akin to getting the top draft pick in sports every year. However, current restrictive policies turn this talent away, sending them to competitor nations and stunting American innovation.
As the U.S. tightens immigration for skilled workers, innovation may shift to countries with more welcoming policies. This macroeconomic trend presents a personal finance strategy: diversifying portfolios with international ETFs to capture growth in emerging tech hubs and hedge against a potential decline in U.S. competitiveness.
International student tuition is one of America's most profitable exports, with gross margins around 95% that fund university research. Anti-immigrant sentiment discourages applications, kneecapping this lucrative economic engine.
America intentionally avoided solving illegal immigration because it serves a crucial economic purpose: providing a flexible, cheap labor force that doesn't draw on social safety nets. This benefits industries and consumers while placing little burden on the state.
The American Competitiveness and Workforce Improvement Act (ACWIA) mandates a fee within each H-1B application. This money is specifically used by the Department of Labor to fund training for U.S. workers in technology and other high-demand fields, directly linking the hiring of foreign talent to upskilling the domestic workforce.
Data from 2004-2023 reveals low unemployment in occupations that heavily utilize H-1B visas, such as tech and engineering. This suggests that foreign workers are filling a talent gap rather than displacing a large number of available American workers, challenging the narrative that immigration is a primary cause of job loss in these sectors.
Frame AI not as a tool, but as a wave of "digital immigrants" with superhuman cognitive abilities. Similar to how the NAFTA trade agreement outsourced manufacturing, AI will outsource knowledge work. This will create abundance for some but risks hollowing out the middle class and social fabric.
High-growth companies create a virtuous cycle for talent. The faster a company grows, the more career advancement opportunities it creates, which attracts the best people. This influx of A-players then accelerates growth further. Conversely, stagnation creates a vicious cycle, repelling top candidates and making growth harder to achieve.
Restricting immigration halts a key source of labor for essential sectors like agriculture and construction. This drives up consumer costs and could cut GDP by 4-7%, creating a direct path to higher inflation and slower economic growth.
Attempting to hoard technology like a state secret is counterproductive for the US. The nation's true competitive advantage has always been its open society, which enables broad participation and bottom-up innovation. Competing effectively, especially in AI, means leaning into this openness, not trying to emulate closed, top-down systems.
Contrary to the belief that distribution is the new moat, the crucial differentiator in AI is talent. Building a truly exceptional AI product is incredibly nuanced and complex, requiring a rare skill set. The scarcity of people who can build off models in an intelligent, tasteful way is the real technological moat, not just access to data or customers.