A successful systematic credit strategy is not just about predicting returns. It equally relies on accurately forecasting the associated risks and, crucially, the transaction costs, described as avoiding giving a 'liver and a kidney to Goldman Sachs.'

The yield premium for private credit has shrunk, meaning investors are no longer adequately compensated for the additional illiquidity, concentration, and credit risk they assume. Publicly traded high-yield bonds and bank loans now offer comparable returns with better diversification and liquidity, questioning the rationale for allocating to private credit.

When successful macro traders played the 'Crystal Ball' game, they won not by trading constantly, but by being highly selective. They almost exclusively traded bonds and only acted on the few days where they perceived a high expected Sharpe ratio, avoiding action otherwise.

The rise of electronic and portfolio trading has made public credit markets as liquid as equity markets. This 'equitification' has compressed spreads by eliminating the historical illiquidity premium, forcing investors into private markets like private credit to find comparable yield.

An extensive study of 4 million scenarios by Acadian shows that market timing strategies for credit—exiting when spreads are tight and re-entering when wide—underperform a simple buy-and-hold approach approximately 70% of the time. The roll-down return from the yield curve is consistently underestimated.

Unlike discretionary managers with narrow focus, a systematic process has a view on every bond continuously. This allows it to act as a liquidity provider—trading opportunistically when others are forced to transact—and capture implementation alpha, effectively being 'paid to trade.'

Superior returns can come from a firm's structure, not just its stock picks. By designing incentive systems and processes that eliminate 'alpha drags'—like short-term pressures, misaligned compensation, and herd behavior—a firm can create a durable, structural competitive advantage that boosts performance.

The common practice of bifurcating credit portfolios into 'investment grade' and 'high yield' is an artifact of historical benchmarks and institutional mandates, not an economically optimal approach. A purely systematic view would blend them based on risk characteristics.

Barclays' research shows that the best investment performance comes from combining fundamental analysts with systematic signals. The key is to filter out trades where the two perspectives diverge, as this method is exceptionally effective at eliminating potential losing investments and generating alpha.