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The traditional advertising industry is in structural decline. While experienced professionals over 40 may be able to advise clients through the complexity, it's a shrinking, "shitty business." Younger individuals should exit the industry for better opportunities rather than building a career in a dying field.
Clients are realizing they can use tools like ChatGPT to get similar or better results than their agencies, leading them to demand massive fee reductions or terminate contracts entirely. This trend highlights a significant threat to the traditional agency model if firms do not adapt and prove their value beyond what AI can offer.
As media companies scale, they are increasingly run by finance or legal executives who prioritize pulling business levers over creative vision. This shift creates a market opportunity for smaller, passion-driven companies led by actual creators who are less focused on pure optimization.
The ad industry's 1960s shift toward clever, vibe-based ads was a mistake. This "modernist" turn abandoned the effective model of David Ogilvy, which successfully combined a hard-sell message (facts, benefits) with powerful imagery. Modern ads often fail because they prioritize entertainment over persuasion.
The primary barrier to properly valuing creativity in advertising is the industry's reliance on a service-based, billable-hour model. This is a fundamental flaw that prevents creative work from being valued on its impact and outcome, unlike in the tech industry.
Large companies will increasingly use AI to automate rote tasks and shrink payrolls. The safest career path is no longer a stable corporate job but rather becoming an "n of 1" expert who is irreplaceable or pursuing a high-risk entrepreneurial venture before the window of opportunity closes.
Mid-career professionals successful for over 15 years are a "potential lost generation." Their reliance on word-of-mouth and past methods creates a false sense of security, making them slow to adapt to new platforms and vulnerable to disruption from AI and social media.
Many large agencies are not truly consumer-centric. Their business model incentivizes focusing on winning industry awards (like Cannes Lions), pleasing internal stakeholders, and navigating corporate politics. This creates a fundamental disconnect from where consumer attention actually is, leading to ineffective marketing spend.
Michael Bierut compares creative professionals to athletes, noting that even non-physical talents have a peak. He began his retirement when he sensed his ability to 'do' the design was slowing, highlighting the need for self-awareness to proactively design a career's next chapter.
In a rapidly changing industry, it is better to advocate for your genuine beliefs and risk career setbacks than to silently comply with outdated corporate strategies. You are more likely to lose professionally in the long run by saying things you don't believe.
The creative industry is harming itself more through internal cynicism and inaction than from external threats like AI. Creatives spend too much time writing thought pieces about a perceived decline instead of actively making groundbreaking work.