The Russia-Ukraine conflict demonstrates that the first move in modern warfare is often a cyberattack to disable critical systems like logistics and communication. This is a low-cost, high-impact method to immobilize an adversary before physical engagement.

In tabletop exercises simulating AI development, a common outcome is that nations race recklessly until a major incident (like a rogue superintelligence) forces a panicked global shutdown. This often leads to a complex three-way conflict between an international alliance, secret state projects, and the rogue AI.

The most significant near-term AI cyber threat isn't a sudden apocalypse, but nation-states using advanced models to quietly find and hoard zero-day vulnerabilities. This creates a dangerous, unseen strategic imbalance, increasing the risk of miscalculation and escalation during geopolitical crises like a potential Taiwan invasion.

The primary risk to elections is not hacking air-gapped voting machines. Instead, it is AI-enabled disinformation creating 'perception hacks.' In a fragmented information environment, the ability to make a lie go viral is more potent than technical compromise, eroding voter confidence regardless of the election's actual security.

Adversaries increasingly use cyberspace to attack the foundations of society, government, and the economy. This creates a state of perpetual, low-level conflict—a 'gray zone' between war and peace. These actions test confidence in core systems and undermine international order without triggering a traditional military response.

Former CISA Director Jen Easterly reveals a strategic shift from Chinese cyber espionage to pre-positioning disruptive malware in US critical infrastructure. The goal is to detonate these 'cyber bombs' in water, power, and transport systems to incite societal chaos and deter US intervention in a potential Taiwan conflict.

Reports of Mythos AI hacking the NSA, which fueled the Fable 5 ban narrative, were misleading. The incident was a controlled red team exercise demonstrating the model's capabilities in a simulated environment, not an actual breach of live classified systems.

In high-level war games, the Department of Defense's primary concern shifts quickly from the pathogen itself to the secondary effects of its release. The complete breakdown of civil order, mass anarchy, and armed insurrection are considered the more complex and dangerous long-term national security threats.

Offensive cyber attacks are dangerous not just because they are asymmetric (low cost, high impact), but because they are 'non-kinetic'. An invisible attack on critical infrastructure is hard to attribute and react to, creating a murky 'cold war' scenario and challenging doctrinal questions about what constitutes an escalation of force.