Unlike stocks with varying degrees of success, Bitcoin's outcome is binary: it either succeeds in maintaining its fixed supply and becomes global money, or it fails and is worthless. This simplifies due diligence to a finite set of core questions.
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Unlike missing a tech stock's upside, choosing not to hold Bitcoin is an active decision to remain in a fiat system that guarantees wealth erosion through debasement. Inaction means your financial situation and standard of living actively get worse.
While Bitcoin's code can be copied, its core innovation—verifiable absolute scarcity—cannot be replicated. It was a one-time discovery, like the number zero. Any subsequent digital asset lacks the pristine origin and established network effect, making Bitcoin a unique, non-disruptable phenomenon rather than just another technology.
As Bitcoin matures, its risk-return profile is changing. The era of doubling in value every couple of years may be over. Instead, it could transition into a high-performing asset that reliably generates 15-25% annualized returns, outperforming traditional assets but no longer offering the explosive, "get rich quick" upside of its early days.
Bitcoin's core properties (fixed supply, perfect portability) make it a superior safe haven to gold. However, the market currently treats it as a volatile, risk-on asset. This perception gap represents a unique, transitional moment in financial history.
Despite widespread institutional adoption and soaring prices, veteran financial editor Jim Grant maintains a deeply skeptical view of Bitcoin. He considers it a fundamentally valueless asset propped up by hype and questionable promotions, dismissing its utility and concluding its most efficient and logical price is zero.
The recent surge in Bitcoin's value and market share aligns with a broader flight to store-of-value assets, including gold. This suggests its product-market fit as 'digital gold' is resonating in the current macroeconomic climate, independent of technological innovation on the network itself.
Gold excels on four of the five properties of money but fails on portability. Bitcoin digitizes and perfects all five: divisibility, durability, recognizability, portability, and scarcity. This makes it a fundamentally superior store of value for the digital age.
A quantitative analysis of Bitcoin's drivers reveals a clear breakdown. Half of its systematic movement is tied to global liquidity flows. The other half is split evenly between general risk appetite, correlated with tech stocks like the NASDAQ, and the price of gold, with which it has a long-term positive correlation.
An asset can only function as money if it has intrinsic value to a subset of the population, establishing a price floor. Cigarettes work as currency in prison because some people actually want to smoke them. Bitcoin, having no underlying use, is like a "digital cigarette" you can't smoke, making its value purely speculative.
An investor's Bitcoin thesis rests on three pillars: 1) as a self-custodied asset for debanking/borderless scenarios, 2) as an investment for pure price appreciation ("number go up"), and 3) as an ethical holding to support a better financial system. This framework clarifies why proxies like MSTR satisfy the latter two needs but never the first.