A 100-year chart of the S&P 500 priced in gold shows a major cyclical peak was hit in late 2021, similar to 1929 and 2000. This inflection point suggests a long-term, decade-plus trend reversal favoring hard assets like gold and Bitcoin over U.S. equities.

Bitcoin's core properties (fixed supply, perfect portability) make it a superior safe haven to gold. However, the market currently treats it as a volatile, risk-on asset. This perception gap represents a unique, transitional moment in financial history.

As a highly volatile and retail-driven asset, Bitcoin serves as a leading indicator for investor risk appetite. It's a "canary in the coal mine" where a "risk on" sentiment leads to sharp increases, while a "risk off" mood triggers rapid declines, often preceding moves in traditional markets.

The long-held belief that Bitcoin's price follows a predictable four-year cycle is obsolete. The primary drivers are now global liquidity (M2) and broader business cycles, specifically manufacturing sector performance. Investors clinging to the old halving model risk mis-timing the market.

Bitcoin's 27% plunge, far exceeding the stock market's dip, shows how high-beta assets react disproportionately to macro uncertainty. When the central bank signals a slowdown due to a "foggy" outlook, investors flee to safety, punishing the riskiest assets the most.

Before stress appears in repo markets or equity volatility, Bitcoin's price acts as a leading indicator. It is the "last functioning smoke alarm" for tightening global liquidity, making its price action a crucial, early signal for macro investors to monitor.

The recent divergence, where Bitcoin has fallen significantly while major stock indices remain stable, breaks the asset's recent high correlation with risk-on equities. This suggests the current bearish sentiment is isolated to the crypto asset itself and its specific market dynamics, rather than being part of a broader market-wide downturn.

Unlike Bitcoin, which sells off during liquidity crunches, gold is being bid up by sovereign nations. This divergence reflects a strategic shift by central banks away from US Treasuries following the sanctioning of Russia's reserves, viewing gold as the only true safe haven asset.

The predictable four-year crypto cycle isn't random. It's explained by two parallel forces: a macro trend tracking global M2 money supply fluctuations, and a micro, commodity-like pattern of supply shocks, speculative bubbles, and subsequent crashes.