An investor's Bitcoin thesis rests on three pillars: 1) as a self-custodied asset for debanking/borderless scenarios, 2) as an investment for pure price appreciation ("number go up"), and 3) as an ethical holding to support a better financial system. This framework clarifies why proxies like MSTR satisfy the latter two needs but never the first.

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While Bitcoin's code can be copied, its core innovation—verifiable absolute scarcity—cannot be replicated. It was a one-time discovery, like the number zero. Any subsequent digital asset lacks the pristine origin and established network effect, making Bitcoin a unique, non-disruptable phenomenon rather than just another technology.

As Bitcoin matures, its risk-return profile is changing. The era of doubling in value every couple of years may be over. Instead, it could transition into a high-performing asset that reliably generates 15-25% annualized returns, outperforming traditional assets but no longer offering the explosive, "get rich quick" upside of its early days.

Bitcoin's core properties (fixed supply, perfect portability) make it a superior safe haven to gold. However, the market currently treats it as a volatile, risk-on asset. This perception gap represents a unique, transitional moment in financial history.

A proposed mental model frames MicroStrategy's issuance of preferred stock as analogous to Tether issuing stablecoins. Instead of using treasuries, MSTR uses heavily over-collateralized Bitcoin (e.g., 5-to-1 ratio) to create a yield-bearing, dollar-denominated instrument, effectively securitizing its Bitcoin holdings to generate returns for equity holders.

Gold excels on four of the five properties of money but fails on portability. Bitcoin digitizes and perfects all five: divisibility, durability, recognizability, portability, and scarcity. This makes it a fundamentally superior store of value for the digital age.

Governments fund wars with opaque money printing. Because Bitcoin cannot be printed, it would force leaders to use direct taxation, which citizens would resist. Its unseizable nature also removes the economic incentive of conquering nations for their reserves.

For younger generations who are digitally native, the concept of physical value (e.g., gold being a "real thing") is meaningless. They trust the digital realm more than physical storage, viewing both gold and Bitcoin simply as assets whose value is determined by what others will pay.

An asset can only function as money if it has intrinsic value to a subset of the population, establishing a price floor. Cigarettes work as currency in prison because some people actually want to smoke them. Bitcoin, having no underlying use, is like a "digital cigarette" you can't smoke, making its value purely speculative.

The primary driver of Bitcoin's recent appreciation isn't hardcore believers, but mainstream speculators who bought ETFs. These investors lack ideological commitment and will rush for the exits during a downturn, creating a mass liquidation event that the market's limited liquidity cannot absorb.

Successful crypto projects will move beyond pure financial utility. By building in social components (community identity) and emotional components (contributing to a social good), they can build the trust and narrative strength needed to stand out in a crowded market.

Investors Hold Bitcoin for Three Distinct Reasons: Self-Sovereignty, Price Appreciation, and Ethical Belief | RiffOn