Get your free personalized podcast brief

We scan new podcasts and send you the top 5 insights daily.

Sequoia partner Julian Beck advises that AI services ("autopilots") will initially target work that companies already outsource. This strategy avoids internal reorgs and firings, replaces an existing budget line cleanly, and targets buyers who are already comfortable with external work products.

Related Insights

AI's most successful enterprise use cases, customer service and coding, target opposite ends of the labor cost spectrum. It either replaces easily quantifiable, lower-cost roles or provides significant leverage to the most expensive employees like software engineers.

The integration of AI into human-led services will mirror Tesla's approach to self-driving. Humans will remain the primary interface (the "steering wheel"), while AI progressively automates backend tasks, enhancing capability rather than eliminating the human role entirely in the near term.

The ultimate impact of AI isn't just enhancing employee productivity via software. It's about companies transitioning from selling tools to selling outcomes. For example, an HR software provider could evolve to sell the automated work of an HR professional, handling payroll queries and benefits directly.

Frame internal AI initiatives not as a way to replace employees, but to automate their chores. This frees them to move 'up the stack' to perform higher-value functions like client relations, creative strategy, and founder meetings, ultimately increasing overall output.

AI will not primarily disrupt SaaS incumbents like Salesforce. Instead, its main economic impact will be automating repetitive labor, a market 40 times larger than enterprise software spend. AI-native companies are targeting labor-intensive roles like customer service, not trying to replace existing software subscriptions.

AI companies can accelerate enterprise adoption by focusing on workflows already outsourced to BPOs. This provides pre-codified standard operating procedures (SOPs), existing QA processes, and simpler change management, as replacing a vendor is easier than displacing an internal team.

Sequoia Capital highlights that the next trillion-dollar companies will sell automated services ("autopilots"), not just software tools ("copilots"). They are pursuing the massive total addressable market of human labor, which is ten times larger than the entire software market.

The narrative of AI causing widespread sales layoffs is misleading. The more significant, subtle shift is that when a salesperson quits, companies will increasingly replace that function with an AI agent rather than hiring another person. This non-backfill approach is the real force of change.

The initial wave of AI-driven efficiency isn't leading to widespread US layoffs. Instead, it's allowing American companies to bring repetitive tasks back in-house that were previously outsourced to countries like India and the Philippines. This suggests immediate job displacement will occur abroad.

Startups building AI agents to automate work should first target outsourced services. It is easier to win business by swapping an existing third-party vendor with a ready budget than it is to persuade a company to undergo internal reorganization and headcount reduction.

AI Will First Replace Outsourced Services Before In-House Headcount | RiffOn