Despite a law requiring TikTok's complete separation from its Chinese owner ByteDance, the approved deal maintains deep operational and financial ties. ByteDance retains a board seat and leases its core algorithm for royalties, effectively creating a superficial compliance that fails to address the law's original national security concerns.
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The mandated sale of TikTok's US operations values the company at a fraction of its market worth (~$28B vs. an estimated $120B). This isn't a fair market transaction; it's a politically engineered deal that will hand a massive, near-guaranteed 300-400% return to a select group of connected investors.
Meta's acquisition of Manus, a Chinese-founded startup that moved to Singapore, is being scrutinized by Beijing. This shows that simply changing legal domicile is not enough to escape China's control over deals involving its domestic technology, data, or talent, setting a precedent for future cross-border M&A.
The podcast reveals a key insight into China's geopolitical strategy. Xi Jinping privately dismissed TikTok as "spiritual opium," a low-cost asset he was willing to sacrifice. The sale was not a major loss but an easy concession to secure continued dialogue with the U.S. on more critical issues, reframing the event as a calculated move.
On secondary markets, ByteDance is valued at ~2x next year's sales. In contrast, its direct US and Chinese competitors, Meta and Tencent, trade at multiples of 6-7x. This massive discount is primarily attributed to the persistent regulatory uncertainty surrounding TikTok's US operations.
The once-strong political will to force a clean break for TikTok has faded due to the app's massive popularity, lawmaker distraction, and a deal structure that financially benefits political allies. This demonstrates how shifting political priorities and potential self-interest can weaken the enforcement of established national security policies.
Despite a potential US ownership deal, TikTok remains a national security risk because the core algorithm will still be licensed from China. Control over the information flow to Americans is the real issue, not data storage location, making the deal a superficial fix.
The US government's demand for TikTok to store American user data on US servers is identical to the policy China has long required of foreign tech companies. This rule is why platforms like Facebook, which refused to comply, are unavailable in China.
Despite Congress passing and the Supreme Court upholding a law to force a sale of TikTok on national security grounds, the Trump administration is simply not enforcing it. Instead, it's pursuing a private deal, demonstrating how stated national security imperatives can be abandoned for political or business expediency.
To address national security concerns, the plan for TikTok's U.S. entity involves not just data localization but retraining its content algorithm exclusively on U.S. user data. This novel approach aims to create a firewall against potential foreign manipulation of the content feed, going a step beyond simple data storage solutions.
The forced sale of TikTok to a hand-picked group of political donors at a steep discount is not a genuine national security solution but a form of cronyism. It bypasses a competitive auction, enriches allies, and likely fails to sever the Chinese government's control over the algorithm, achieving the worst of all outcomes.
