Gold's price is rising alongside risk assets and falling during stress events, a reversal of its historical role. This behavior mirrors speculative assets like Bitcoin, suggesting its recent rally is driven by momentum and bandwagon effects, not a fundamental flight from fiat currency debasement.

A portfolio's performance can be dramatically enhanced by combining traditionally separate strategies. A leveraged mix of equities (S&P), hedges (long volatility), and trend-following strategies can produce returns that are multiples higher (e.g., 40x) than equities alone (e.g., 6-7x) over the same period.

Establish a foundational, long-term position in physical precious metals first. This "bedrock" provides stability and conviction, allowing you to then make more tactical, risk-managed trades in leveraged but more volatile assets like gold and silver miners.

In an environment characterized by a series of sector-specific bull runs (e.g., from semis to metals), a winning strategy is to actively trade breakouts as they occur. This capitalizes on rotational leadership and momentum rather than relying on a static portfolio.

The most profitable periods for trend following occur when market trends extend far beyond what seems rational or fundamentally justified. The strategy is designed to stay disciplined as prices move to levels few can imagine, long after others have exited.

Even if an investor had perfect foresight to buy only at market bottoms, they would likely underperform someone who simply invests the same amount every month. The reason is that the 'market timer' holds cash for extended periods while waiting for a dip, missing out on the market's general upward trend, which often makes new bottoms higher than previous entry points.

Beyond its primary role of reducing drawdowns, trend following acts as a premier diversifier that can solve several portfolio construction flaws at once. It can dynamically allocate to foreign markets (solving home bias), value stocks (when they're trending), and real assets like gold and silver, providing exposure that traditional portfolios often neglect.

Market cap indexing acts like a basic trend-following system by buying more of what's rising. However, its Achilles' heel is the lack of a valuation anchor, causing investors to over-concentrate in expensive assets at market peaks. In high-valuation environments, almost any other weighting method, like equal-weight or value, is likely to outperform over the long term.

Rather than passively holding a stock, the "buy and optimize" strategy involves actively managing its weighting in a portfolio. As a stock becomes more expensive relative to its intrinsic value, the position is trimmed, and when it gets cheaper, it is increased, creating an additional layer of return.