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Samra argues that as AUM grows, finding undervalued securities becomes exponentially harder. To maintain high returns, he focuses capital only on his absolute best ideas, avoiding the dilution of a "30th best idea." This concentration is a direct response to the constraints of scale and the difficulty of finding true value.
Privat Capital holds a concentrated portfolio of 16-17 stocks. This strategy forces deep conviction in each position and ensures that winners have a meaningful impact on fund performance. Over-diversification can dilute both research focus and the potential returns from a fund's best ideas.
The most successful venture investors share two key traits: they originate investments from a first-principles or contrarian standpoint, and they possess the conviction to concentrate significant capital into their winning portfolio companies as they emerge.
While diversification is preached for managing risk, the world's most successful investors build wealth through concentration. They make a few large bets in areas where they have a distinct advantage or "alpha," rather than spreading their capital thinly across the market.
Successful concentration isn't just about doubling down on winners. It's equally about avoiding the dispersion of capital and attention. This means resisting the industry bias to automatically do a pro-rata investment in a company just because another VC offered a higher valuation.
The firm found that positions growing beyond 8% of the portfolio did not add enough value to justify the increased concentration risk. This disciplined approach prevents overconfidence in single ideas from jeopardizing overall fund performance.
Singerman dismisses standard VC practices like reserve calculations and ownership targets as "nonsense." He argues that to truly beat the market, a firm must abandon these rules and concentrate as much capital as possible into its highest-conviction companies, creating extreme, fund-defining outcomes.
Mohnish Pabrai argues against trimming winners. He believes that over decades, a truly skilled fund manager should let their best idea run until it dominates the portfolio, potentially reaching 95% concentration. Selling a rare, generational compounder just to rebalance is a critical mistake he calls "desecration of the temple."
Alexander Roepers intentionally limits his firm's assets under management (AUM) by closing funds to new investors. He recognizes that, as demonstrated by Berkshire Hathaway, scale is an enemy of high-rate compounding. Staying smaller allows his firm to remain nimble and continue effectively executing its concentrated mid-cap strategy, prioritizing performance over fee growth.
While managers can identify their best ideas within a larger portfolio, this doesn't mean a fund holding only those few ideas will succeed. Empirically, highly concentrated managers often don't outperform. This approach may attract managers whose success is more attributable to luck than skill.
Thrive Capital rejects traditional VC diversification, instead making massive, concentrated bets on what it deems the best-in-class assets, like its $2 billion investment in Stripe. This 'buy the best' approach, focusing on significant ownership in top-tier companies, has been central to its outsized returns.